Exact Score: Boreham Wood FC 0 - 0 Wigan Athletic FC?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $578 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$577.93
$2.26
96.1¢ → 96.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 96.2¢ | $315.26 | $316.06 | +$0.8 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.9¢ | $148.32 | $149.04 | +$1.02 | 51% 38177-37419 (75596) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $50.73 | $50.79 | +$0.26 | 49% 1765-1864 (3629) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $49.37 | $49.38 | +$0.2 | 50% 1821-1809 (3630) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $12.7 | $12.67 | -$0.04 | 48% 1742-1871 (3613) |
Invested
$315.26
Value
$316.06
PnL
+$0.8
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Invested
$148.32
Value
$149.04
PnL
+$1.02
Record
51%
38177-37419 (75596)
Invested
$50.73
Value
$50.79
PnL
+$0.26
Record
49%
1765-1864 (3629)
Invested
$49.37
Value
$49.38
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
1821-1809 (3630)
Invested
$12.7
Value
$12.67
PnL
-$0.04
Record
48%
1742-1871 (3613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.