Will Boreham Wood FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC end in a draw?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $236 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$235.92
$13.63
74.3¢ → 78.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 43%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $50.34 | $50.66 | +$0.32 | 64% 10181-5719 (15900) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $50.29 | $50.62 | +$0.32 | 64% 10178-5767 (15945) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $51.09 | $50.53 | -$0.56 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $41.95 | $41.49 | +$0.8 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $21.5 | $33.54 | +$12.69 | — 1-0 (1) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $9.02 | $9.08 | +$0.06 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
Invested
$50.34
Value
$50.66
PnL
+$0.32
Record
64%
10181-5719 (15900)
Invested
$50.29
Value
$50.62
PnL
+$0.32
Record
64%
10178-5767 (15945)
Invested
$51.09
Value
$50.53
PnL
-$0.56
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$41.95
Value
$41.49
PnL
+$0.8
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$33.54
PnL
+$12.69
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$9.02
Value
$9.08
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.