Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Boreham Wood FC win on 2026-11-07?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 43¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$7.2K
-$22.7
54.1¢ → 43¢
-21% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
52h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 46.3¢ | $3.5K | $4.3K | +$798.7 | 50% 21456-21716 (43172) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 56.5¢ | $3.4K | $2.2K | -$777.57 | 58% 47221-34058 (81279) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $466.2 | $431.19 | -$35.01 | 51% 26669-25270 (51939) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 44¢ | $252.37 | $246.63 | -$5.74 | 50% 38089-37336 (75425) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Yesavg 59.2¢ | $44.41 | $42.75 | -$0.38 | 51% 1749-1699 (3448) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $17.14 | $15.35 | -$1.96 | 50% 26223-25873 (52096) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yesavg 54.2¢ | $7.05 | $7.41 | +$0.36 | 49% 1721-1768 (3489) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $5.5 | $4.3 | -$1.1 | 53% 2654-2333 (4987) |
Invested
$3,475.64
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$798.7
Record
50%
21456-21716 (43172)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$3,389.64
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$777.57
Record
58%
47221-34058 (81279)
Invested
$466.2
Value
$431.19
PnL
-$35.01
Record
51%
26669-25270 (51939)
Invested
$252.37
Value
$246.63
PnL
-$5.74
Record
50%
38089-37336 (75425)
Invested
$44.41
Value
$42.75
PnL
-$0.38
Record
51%
1749-1699 (3448)
Invested
$17.14
Value
$15.35
PnL
-$1.96
Record
50%
26223-25873 (52096)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$7.41
PnL
+$0.36
Record
49%
1721-1768 (3489)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$5.5
Value
$4.3
PnL
-$1.1
Record
53%
2654-2333 (4987)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.