Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Wycombe Wanderers FC win on 2026-11-07?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 35¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Yes66¢No34¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$83.49

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 34.5¢

-43% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$696.36

Total Shares1,082

Combined PnL+$166

No3 traders

Total Value$328.1

Total Shares958

Combined PnL-$249.49

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 40.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$7.97	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.7¢	$791.99	$837.74	+$45.75
└ No leg	Noavg 61.6¢	$507.84	$470.06	-$37.78
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 40.1¢	$158.26	$304.14	+$145.88	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 59.2¢	$218.36	$189.9	-$28.46	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
RI RichieRicher	Yesavg 39.9¢	$159.73	$170.18	+$10.45	54% 816-691 (1507)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Yesavg 50¢	$136	$136	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 61¢	$340.93	$128.6	-$212.33	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$39.28	$41.85	+$2.56	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 41.2¢	$32.98	$38.82	+$5.84	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$18.3	$9.6	-$8.7	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 37.2¢	$4.11	$5.36	+$1.25	49% 1843-1935 (3778)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,299.83

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$7.97

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Both legs:

Yes$791.9940.7¢+$45.75

No$507.8461.6¢-$37.78

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$158.26

Value

$304.14

PnL

+$145.88

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$218.36

Value

$189.9

PnL

-$28.46

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

RichieRicher

Yes

Invested

$159.73

Value

$170.18

PnL

+$10.45

Record

54%

816-691 (1507)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Yes

Invested

$136

Value

$136

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$340.93

Value

$128.6

PnL

-$212.33

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.28

Value

$41.85

PnL

+$2.56

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.98

Value

$38.82

PnL

+$5.84

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$18.3

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$8.7

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.11

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$1.25

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.