Will Accrington Stanley FC win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$117.48

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 99.5¢

+50% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,702

Combined PnL-$38.38

Yes4 traders

Total Value$643.19

Total Shares2,147

Combined PnL-$79.09

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 67¢	$719.81	$747.13	+$27.32	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 33.6¢	$697.28	$612.7	-$84.58	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
VE Venusian	Noavg 69¢	$257.29	$220	-$37.29	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
LI Limousin	Noavg 64.9¢	$118.92	$89.8	-$29.12	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100	Noavg 50¢	$35.5	$36.21	+$0.71	— 1-0 (1)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.2¢	$19.71	$26.68	+$6.97	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.1¢	$1.88	$2.7	+$0.82	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$3.4	$1.1	-$2.3	58% 47503-34297 (81800)

Flaznorp

Invested

$719.81

Value

$747.13

PnL

+$27.32

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$697.28

Value

$612.7

PnL

-$84.58

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Venusian

Invested

$257.29

Value

$220

PnL

-$37.29

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Limousin

Invested

$118.92

Value

$89.8

PnL

-$29.12

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100

Invested

$35.5

Value

$36.21

PnL

+$0.71

Record

—

1-0 (1)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.71

Value

$26.68

PnL

+$6.97

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.88

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.82

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$2.3

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.