Will Notts County FC win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 54¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$3.2K
$34.7
56.9¢ → 53.5¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 57¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$74.21 | 58% 47475-34259 (81734) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 43¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$109.35 | 50% 21534-21823 (43357) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $149 | $148.26 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $74.5 | $80.46 | +$6.71 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $74.5 | $67.8 | -$6.71 | |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $33.54 | $33.54 | +$0 | 50% 28899-28703 (57602) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 55.2¢ | $19.33 | $18.9 | -$0.43 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.28 | +$0 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,708.67
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$74.21
Record
58%
47475-34259 (81734)
Invested
$1,333.75
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$109.35
Record
50%
21534-21823 (43357)
Invested
$149
Value
$148.26
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Both legs:
Invested
$33.54
Value
$33.54
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
28899-28703 (57602)
Invested
$19.33
Value
$18.9
PnL
-$0.43
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.