CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Manta FC: O/U 4.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$299.91

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 91.5¢

+22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$761.84

Total Shares814

Combined PnL+$132.19

Over5 traders

Total Value$380.14

Total Shares1,828

Combined PnL+$167.72

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 73.2¢	$445.91	$572.34	+$126.44	50% 32-32 (64)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 13.9¢	$156.22	$308.28	+$152.06	52% 236-220 (456)
CI cigarettes	Underavg 80¢	$120	$127.5	+$7.5	38% 88-145 (233)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 8.1¢	$23.42	$34.55	+$11.13	54% 230-199 (429)
dips.<$100	Underavg 78.7¢	$37.27	$33.65	-$3.8	47% 89-101 (190)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 12.2¢	$20.58	$33	+$12.42	22% 46-161 (207)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 78.8¢	$26.3	$28.35	+$2.05	52% 59-54 (113)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$11.88	$4.18	-$7.7	60% 37-25 (62)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$0.32	$0.13	-$0.19	47% 37-42 (79)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$445.91

Value

$572.34

PnL

+$126.44

Record

50%

32-32 (64)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$156.22

Value

$308.28

PnL

+$152.06

Record

52%

236-220 (456)

cigarettes

Under

Invested

$120

Value

$127.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.42

Value

$34.55

PnL

+$11.13

Record

54%

230-199 (429)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$37.27

Value

$33.65

PnL

-$3.8

Record

47%

89-101 (190)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.58

Value

$33

PnL

+$12.42

Record

22%

46-161 (207)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$26.3

Value

$28.35

PnL

+$2.05

Record

52%

59-54 (113)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.88

Value

$4.18

PnL

-$7.7

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.19

Record

47%

37-42 (79)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.