CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Manta FC: O/U 3.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 69¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 9

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$146.01

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 69¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,465

Combined PnL-$195.27

Over5 traders

Total Value$507.41

Total Shares1,635

Combined PnL+$49.26

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 68.2¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	-$203.42	50% 32-32 (64)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 30¢	$745.82	$767.35	+$21.53	54% 230-199 (429)
└ Over leg	Overavg 30¢	$516.98	$499.88	-$17.1
└ Under leg	Underavg 60.7¢	$228.84	$267.47	+$38.63
LA LaarsY	Underavg 78¢	$390	$392.5	+$2.5	0% 0-129 (129)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 28.5¢	$90.92	$226.94	+$136.02	52% 236-220 (456)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 46.9¢	$212.49	$144.95	-$67.54	30% 60-139 (199)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 41.3¢	$82.02	$66.46	-$15.56	38% 88-145 (233)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$65.28	$61.44	-$3.84	47% 89-101 (190)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 60.1¢	$37	$41.08	+$4.08	52% 59-54 (113)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 50¢	$38.52	$39.84	+$1.57	60% 37-25 (62)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$7.44	$7.62	+$0.18	22% 46-161 (207)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,381.41

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$203.42

Record

50%

32-32 (64)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$745.82

Value

$767.35

PnL

+$21.53

Record

54%

230-199 (429)

Both legs:

Over$516.9830¢-$17.1

Under$228.8460.7¢+$38.63

LaarsY

Under

Invested

$390

Value

$392.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

0-129 (129)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$90.92

Value

$226.94

PnL

+$136.02

Record

52%

236-220 (456)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$212.49

Value

$144.95

PnL

-$67.54

Record

30%

60-139 (199)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$82.02

Value

$66.46

PnL

-$15.56

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$65.28

Value

$61.44

PnL

-$3.84

Record

47%

89-101 (190)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$37

Value

$41.08

PnL

+$4.08

Record

52%

59-54 (113)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$38.52

Value

$39.84

PnL

+$1.57

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.44

Value

$7.62

PnL

+$0.18

Record

22%

46-161 (207)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.