Will CD Tecnico Universitario win on 2026-11-09?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 9

Yes85¢No15¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$81.1

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 84.5¢

+25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,909

Combined PnL+$200.94

No4 traders

Total Value$359.8

Total Shares2,062

Combined PnL-$282.05

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 67.7¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$197.2	52% 236-219 (455)
FaroeseNationalistCTR	Noavg 30¢	$476.93	$262.51	-$222.37	— 2-1 (3)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$251.75	$241.83	-$41.69	50% 32-32 (64)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68¢	$154.34	$189.52	+$3.4
└ No leg	Noavg 30.7¢	$97.41	$52.32	-$45.09
SE sentrio	Yesavg 65.5¢	$99.31	$103.78	+$4.47	23% 45-152 (197)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Noavg 32¢	$353.44	$56.55	-$56.55	1% 1-140 (141)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 34.7¢	$42.81	$39.58	-$3.23	18% 39-174 (213)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$21.96	$10	-$0.72	53% 55-48 (103)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$1.05	$1.16	+$0.1	44% 139-175 (314)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,385.05

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$197.2

Record

52%

236-219 (455)

FaroeseNationalistCTR

Invested

$476.93

Value

$262.51

PnL

-$222.37

Record

—

2-1 (3)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$251.75

Value

$241.83

PnL

-$41.69

Record

50%

32-32 (64)

Both legs:

Invested

$99.31

Value

$103.78

PnL

+$4.47

Record

23%

45-152 (197)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Invested

$353.44

Value

$56.55

PnL

-$56.55

Record

1-140 (141)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$42.81

Value

$39.58

PnL

-$3.23

Record

18%

39-174 (213)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.96

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.72

Record

53%

55-48 (103)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.1

Record

44%

139-175 (314)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.