Will Manta FC win on 2026-11-09?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 86¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$3.7K
-$261.53
92¢ → 86¢
-7% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 93.8¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | -$106.65 | 50% 32-32 (64) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 85.1¢ | $743.6 | $674.11 | -$151.06 | 52% 236-220 (456) |
LA LaarsY | Noavg 95.3¢ | $525.05 | $526.82 | +$1.77 | 0% 0-129 (129) |
 RN1 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $202.99 | $192.11 | -$10.99 | 54% 230-199 (429) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 84.9¢ | $129.43 | $130.04 | +$0.61 | 30% 60-139 (199) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $43.66 | $49.77 | +$6.11 | 0% 0-48 (48) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $42.42 | $36.92 | -$3.87 | 22% 46-161 (207) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $27.12 | $21.41 | -$7.06 | 19% 40-175 (215) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $12.42 | $18.51 | +$6.09 | 38% 88-145 (233) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $2.76 | $5.86 | +$3.1 | 47% 89-101 (190) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1.02 | $1.44 | +$0.42 | 44% 140-177 (317) |
Invested
$2,189.5
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$106.65
Record
50%
32-32 (64)
Invested
$743.6
Value
$674.11
PnL
-$151.06
Record
52%
236-220 (456)
Invested
$525.05
Value
$526.82
PnL
+$1.77
Record
0%
0-129 (129)
RN1Invested
$202.99
Value
$192.11
PnL
-$10.99
Record
54%
230-199 (429)
Invested
$129.43
Value
$130.04
PnL
+$0.61
Record
30%
60-139 (199)
Invested
$43.66
Value
$49.77
PnL
+$6.11
Record
0%
0-48 (48)
Invested
$42.42
Value
$36.92
PnL
-$3.87
Record
22%
46-161 (207)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$27.12
Value
$21.41
PnL
-$7.06
Record
19%
40-175 (215)
Invested
$12.42
Value
$18.51
PnL
+$6.09
Record
38%
88-145 (233)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$2.76
Value
$5.86
PnL
+$3.1
Record
47%
89-101 (190)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$1.02
Value
$1.44
PnL
+$0.42
Record
44%
140-177 (317)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.