Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD Tecnico Universitario leading at halftime?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 49¢ · $921 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$920.82
-$26.67
50.1¢ → 48.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 50¢ | $358.01 | $368.56 | +$10.55 | 50% 24138-24257 (48395) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 51.1¢ | $209.44 | $199.76 | -$9.67 | 52% 49624-46573 (96197) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 48.8¢ | $199.7 | $198.64 | -$1.05 | 50% 33876-34123 (67999) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 53.2¢ | $53.25 | $43.5 | -$9.75 | 45% 2742-3329 (6071) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 52.8¢ | $52.24 | $43.07 | -$9.16 | 45% 2723-3293 (6016) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $44.59 | $42.05 | -$2.54 | 51% 28849-28206 (57055) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yesavg 52.2¢ | $30.27 | $25.22 | -$5.05 | 45% 2804-3415 (6219) |
Invested
$358.01
Value
$368.56
PnL
+$10.55
Record
50%
24138-24257 (48395)
Invested
$209.44
Value
$199.76
PnL
-$9.67
Record
52%
49624-46573 (96197)
Invested
$199.7
Value
$198.64
PnL
-$1.05
Record
50%
33876-34123 (67999)
Invested
$53.25
Value
$43.5
PnL
-$9.75
Record
45%
2742-3329 (6071)
Invested
$52.24
Value
$43.07
PnL
-$9.16
Record
45%
2723-3293 (6016)
Invested
$44.59
Value
$42.05
PnL
-$2.54
Record
51%
28849-28206 (57055)
Invested
$30.27
Value
$25.22
PnL
-$5.05
Record
45%
2804-3415 (6219)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.