CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Manta FC: Draw at halftime?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 64¢ · $279 held · ends Nov 9

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$278.57

Combined PnL

-$2.41

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 64¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$100.2

Total Shares278

Combined PnL-$3.71

No5 traders

Total Value$178.37

Total Shares281

Combined PnL+$1.3

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.4¢	$95.69	$92.19	-$3.49	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 63¢	$67.23	$68.3	+$1.07	50% 49324-48846 (98170)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 63¢	$32.35	$32.86	+$0.51	50% 33896-34147 (68043)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 62.6¢	$32.35	$32.57	+$0.22	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 64¢	$49.56	$31.22	-$0.5	45% 2751-3326 (6077)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 63¢	$21.29	$13.41	+$0	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$21.64	$8.01	-$0.22	51% 28858-28213 (57071)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.69

Value

$92.19

PnL

-$3.49

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$67.23

Value

$68.3

PnL

+$1.07

Record

50%

49324-48846 (98170)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$32.35

Value

$32.86

PnL

+$0.51

Record

50%

33896-34147 (68043)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$32.35

Value

$32.57

PnL

+$0.22

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$49.56

Value

$31.22

PnL

-$0.5

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$21.29

Value

$13.41

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.64

Value

$8.01

PnL

-$0.22

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.