Exact Score: CD Tecnico Universitario 3 - 0 Manta FC?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$1.8K
$611.56
91¢ → 99.5¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $127.1 | $675.2 | +$534.28 | 52% 236-220 (456) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 91¢ | $433.43 | $474.16 | +$40.73 | 24% 87-279 (366) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 91¢ | $274.36 | $299.99 | +$25.63 | 25% 84-258 (342) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $173.54 | $221.77 | +$48.23 | 39% 177-276 (453) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $62.96 | $62.71 | -$0.25 | 22% 46-161 (207) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $58.84 | $31.65 | -$25.98 | 24% 81-263 (344) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $16.08 | $8.88 | -$7.2 | 25% 84-248 (332) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $9 | $5.11 | -$3.89 | 48% 35-38 (73) |
Invested
$127.1
Value
$675.2
PnL
+$534.28
Record
52%
236-220 (456)
Invested
$433.43
Value
$474.16
PnL
+$40.73
Record
24%
87-279 (366)
Invested
$274.36
Value
$299.99
PnL
+$25.63
Record
25%
84-258 (342)
Invested
$173.54
Value
$221.77
PnL
+$48.23
Record
39%
177-276 (453)
Invested
$62.96
Value
$62.71
PnL
-$0.25
Record
22%
46-161 (207)
Invested
$58.84
Value
$31.65
PnL
-$25.98
Record
24%
81-263 (344)
Invested
$16.08
Value
$8.88
PnL
-$7.2
Record
25%
84-248 (332)
Invested
$9
Value
$5.11
PnL
-$3.89
Record
48%
35-38 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.