Exact Score: CD Tecnico Universitario 2 - 0 Manta FC?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $689 held · ended Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$689.12

Combined PnL

-$24.52

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$448.89

Total Shares513

Combined PnL+$14.41

Yes7 traders

Total Value$240.23

Total Shares1,033

Combined PnL-$38.94

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 84.7¢	$434.47	$448.89	+$14.41	54% 230-199 (429)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$176.54	$190.12	+$13.58	52% 236-220 (456)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$20.5	$44	+$23.5	52% 59-54 (113)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$7.4	$3.26	+$2.52	22% 46-161 (207)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.6	$2.6	+$0.4	24% 81-263 (344)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$57.51	$0.19	-$57.32	25% 84-258 (342)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$18.88	$0.06	-$18.82	25% 84-248 (332)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$2.8	$0.01	-$2.79	24% 87-279 (366)

RN1

Invested

$434.47

Value

$448.89

PnL

+$14.41

Record

54%

230-199 (429)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$176.54

Value

$190.12

PnL

+$13.58

Record

52%

236-220 (456)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.5

Value

$44

PnL

+$23.5

Record

52%

59-54 (113)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.4

Value

$3.26

PnL

+$2.52

Record

22%

46-161 (207)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

24%

81-263 (344)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.51

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$57.32

Record

25%

84-258 (342)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.88

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$18.82

Record

25%

84-248 (332)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.79

Record

24%

87-279 (366)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.