Exact Score: CD Tecnico Universitario 1 - 2 Manta FC?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 65¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9

Yes35¢No65¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$223.02

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 65.2¢

-33% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$592.84

Total Shares423

Combined PnL+$166.18

Yes7 traders

Total Value$350.41

Total Shares1,042

Combined PnL+$56.84

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.8¢	$374.75	$374.36	-$0.39	46% 38-45 (83)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 96.9¢	$53.04	$218.48	+$166.57	25% 84-248 (332)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$194.66	$193.45	-$1.21	39% 177-276 (453)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$134.8	$142.52	+$11.61	24% 87-279 (366)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.6¢	$7.57	$71.95	+$62.5
└ No leg	Noavg 96.9¢	$121.46	$70.57	-$50.89
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$82.67	$78.44	-$4.23	24% 81-263 (344)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 4.6¢	$134.35	$67.04	+$60.86	25% 84-258 (342)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$4.95	$6.19	+$1.24	52% 236-220 (456)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$3.89	$3.95	+$0.06	54% 230-199 (429)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$1.13	$1.05	-$0.07	22% 46-161 (207)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.1	$0.3	+$0.2	48% 35-38 (73)

SnakeBall

Invested

$374.75

Value

$374.36

PnL

-$0.39

Record

46%

38-45 (83)

LightParadox

Invested

$53.04

Value

$218.48

PnL

+$166.57

Record

25%

84-248 (332)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$194.66

Value

$193.45

PnL

-$1.21

Record

39%

177-276 (453)

LimousinARB<$100

Invested

$134.8

Value

$142.52

PnL

+$11.61

Record

24%

87-279 (366)

Both legs:

Yes$7.574.6¢+$62.5

No$121.4696.9¢-$50.89

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.67

Value

$78.44

PnL

-$4.23

Record

24%

81-263 (344)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$134.35

Value

$67.04

PnL

+$60.86

Record

25%

84-258 (342)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.95

Value

$6.19

PnL

+$1.24

Record

52%

236-220 (456)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

230-199 (429)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.07

Record

22%

46-161 (207)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

35-38 (73)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.3%

65.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

148.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.