CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Manta FC: Both Teams to Score
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 53¢ · $362 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$361.85
$7.76
54¢ → 53¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $103.12 | $106.48 | +$3.36 | 46% 2861-3344 (6205) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 54¢ | $101.72 | $103.7 | +$1.98 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $172.88 | $82.12 | +$2.59 | 45% 2751-3326 (6077) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $97.87 | $46.49 | +$0.49 | 45% 2764-3372 (6136) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $43.93 | $23.06 | -$0.66 | 51% 28858-28213 (57071) |
Invested
$103.12
Value
$106.48
PnL
+$3.36
Record
46%
2861-3344 (6205)
Invested
$101.72
Value
$103.7
PnL
+$1.98
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
Invested
$172.88
Value
$82.12
PnL
+$2.59
Record
45%
2751-3326 (6077)
Invested
$97.87
Value
$46.49
PnL
+$0.49
Record
45%
2764-3372 (6136)
Invested
$43.93
Value
$23.06
PnL
-$0.66
Record
51%
28858-28213 (57071)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.