Will Orense SC win on 2026-11-02?
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 22%
$3.0K
$8.96
50.5¢ → 50.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Yesavg 50.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$1.48 | 55% 1812-1506 (3318) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 49.2¢ | $945.82 | $951.73 | +$5.91 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 50¢ | $219.84 | $220.02 | +$0.18 | 53% 16265-14441 (30706) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $161.41 | $164.7 | +$3.29 | 50% 26430-26259 (52689) |
SE sentrioCTR | Noavg 49.3¢ | $110.48 | $111.02 | +$0.54 | 50% 25009-24731 (49740) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $63.44 | $61 | -$2.44 | 58% 29907-21965 (51872) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 49.7¢ | $14.9 | $13.73 | -$0.02 | 58% 43617-31727 (75344) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 51% 1005-965 (1970) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $1.03 | $1.03 | +$0 | 53% 6378-5764 (12142) |
Invested
$1,495.81
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$1.48
Record
55%
1812-1506 (3318)
Invested
$945.82
Value
$951.73
PnL
+$5.91
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Invested
$219.84
Value
$220.02
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
16265-14441 (30706)
Invested
$161.41
Value
$164.7
PnL
+$3.29
Record
50%
26430-26259 (52689)
Invested
$110.48
Value
$111.02
PnL
+$0.54
Record
50%
25009-24731 (49740)
Invested
$63.44
Value
$61
PnL
-$2.44
Record
58%
29907-21965 (51872)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$14.9
Value
$13.73
PnL
-$0.02
Record
58%
43617-31727 (75344)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1005-965 (1970)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.03
Value
$1.03
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6378-5764 (12142)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.