Mushuc Runa SC vs. Delfin SC: O/U 3.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 95¢ · $312 held · ended Nov 9

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$312

Combined PnL

-$14.52

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 95¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$310.45

Total Shares389

Combined PnL-$14.39

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.13

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.13

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 79¢	$199.32	$195.54	-$3.78	—
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 89.9¢	$87.35	$77	-$10.35	—
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 79¢	$19.75	$19.38	-$0.38	—
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 77¢	$18.41	$18.53	+$0.12	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.13	-$0.13	—

RN1

Under

Invested

$199.32

Value

$195.54

PnL

-$3.78

Record

—

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$87.35

Value

$77

PnL

-$10.35

Record

—

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$19.75

Value

$19.38

PnL

-$0.38

Record

—

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$18.41

Value

$18.53

PnL

+$0.12

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.