Mushuc Runa SC vs. Delfin SC: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 84¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$1.4K
$226.9
57.4¢ → 83.5¢
+46% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 57.8¢ | $522.75 | $626.09 | +$97.58 | — |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 57.4¢ | $255.02 | $337.65 | +$47.44 | — |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 56.9¢ | $201.6 | $290.75 | +$89.15 | — |
SE sentrio | Underavg 57¢ | $117.8 | $119.04 | +$1.24 | — |
BI biying99999<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $53 | $30.48 | +$0.8 | 48% 176-188 (364) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $26.04 | $16.74 | -$9.3 | — |
Invested
$522.75
Value
$626.09
PnL
+$97.58
Record
—
Invested
$255.02
Value
$337.65
PnL
+$47.44
Record
—
VeryLucky888Invested
$201.6
Value
$290.75
PnL
+$89.15
Record
—
Invested
$117.8
Value
$119.04
PnL
+$1.24
Record
—
Invested
$53
Value
$30.48
PnL
+$0.8
Record
48%
176-188 (364)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$26.04
Value
$16.74
PnL
-$9.3
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.