Will Delfin SC win on 2026-11-09?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.0K
$15.89
81.4¢ → 83.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 81.8¢ | $613.59 | $618.7 | +$5.1 | — |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 80.2¢ | $129.49 | $130 | +$0.51 | — |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 17.8¢ | $105.99 | $114.62 | +$8.63 | — |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $98.04 | $97.42 | -$0.61 | — |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $25.99 | $25.76 | -$0.22 | — |
 machinelearned<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $20.8 | $23.1 | +$2.3 | — |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $7.29 | $7.46 | +$0.18 | — |
Invested
$613.59
Value
$618.7
PnL
+$5.1
Record
—
VeryLucky888Invested
$129.49
Value
$130
PnL
+$0.51
Record
—
Invested
$105.99
Value
$114.62
PnL
+$8.63
Record
—
Invested
$98.04
Value
$97.42
PnL
-$0.61
Record
—
tradecraft<$100Invested
$25.99
Value
$25.76
PnL
-$0.22
Record
—
machinelearned<$100Invested
$20.8
Value
$23.1
PnL
+$2.3
Record
—
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$7.29
Value
$7.46
PnL
+$0.18
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.