Will Julia Stiles be eliminated in week 7 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 78¢ · $207 held · ends Oct 28

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$207.36

Combined PnL

-$12.06

Smart Money Entry

88.4¢ → 78¢

-12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$174.31

Total Shares177

Combined PnL-$4.2

Yes2 traders

Total Value$33.05

Total Shares315

Combined PnL-$7.85

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 88.3¢	$158.31	$151.01	-$4.65	29% 280-697 (977)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$39.86	$32.21	-$7.65	35% 14744-26906 (41650)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 89.3¢	$40.03	$23.3	+$0.45	42% 5191-7110 (12301)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.04	$0.84	-$0.2	50% 7602-7622 (15224)

Istaroth

Invested

$158.31

Value

$151.01

PnL

-$4.65

Record

29%

280-697 (977)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.86

Value

$32.21

PnL

-$7.65

Record

35%

14744-26906 (41650)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$40.03

Value

$23.3

PnL

+$0.45

Record

42%

5191-7110 (12301)

RLWGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

7602-7622 (15224)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.