Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.3K
-$162.35
86.8¢ → 98.4¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 92.1¢ | $1.0K | $665.72 | -$173.21 | 36% 15138-27265 (42403) |
 TimeTraveler | Noavg 81.3¢ | $637.5 | $635.35 | -$2.15 | 41% 1959-2764 (4723) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $2 | $8 | +$6 | 47% 2033-2250 (4283) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.29 | $5.17 | +$3.88 | 18% 521-2334 (2855) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $1.35 | $4.49 | +$3.14 | 36% 2033-3639 (5672) |
Invested
$1,032.12
Value
$665.72
PnL
-$173.21
Record
36%
15138-27265 (42403)
TimeTravelerInvested
$637.5
Value
$635.35
PnL
-$2.15
Record
41%
1959-2764 (4723)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
$8
PnL
+$6
Record
47%
2033-2250 (4283)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.29
Value
$5.17
PnL
+$3.88
Record
18%
521-2334 (2855)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$4.49
PnL
+$3.14
Record
36%
2033-3639 (5672)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.