Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Synapse, while the market favors Zenith (96%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Zenith vs Team Synapse - Game 1 Winner

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (50%) · Team Synapse at 4.5¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Zenith96¢Team Synapse4¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team Synapse

Consensus Traders

Team Synapse 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$200.09

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 4.5¢

-94% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam Synapse at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Zenith 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Zenith96%

Team Synapse5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Synapse4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,925

Combined PnL-$85.14

Zenith4 traders

Total Value$673.07

Total Shares694

Combined PnL+$285.23

Team Synapse — 50%Zenith — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Team Synapseavg 72.9¢	$1.0K	$946.15	-$53.85	45% 403-486 (889)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Zenithavg 47.4¢	$252.42	$373.86	+$121.44	56% 3774-2944 (6718)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	Zenithavg 55.6¢	$547.79	$246.44	+$135.62	16% 10-54 (64)
Medo3DCTR	Team Synapseavg 55¢	$204.53	$195.23	-$9.3	3% 6-200 (206)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 51¢	$118.64	$180.51	+$61.87	34% 162-314 (476)
└ Zenith leg	Zenithavg 24.1¢	$52.45	$126	+$73.55
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 51¢	$66.19	$54.51	-$11.68
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 85¢	$100	$81.18	-$18.82	10% 39-369 (408)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 48.7¢	$62	$58.83	-$3.17	48% 721-776 (1497)
LR lryyy<$100	Zenithavg 50.5¢	$25.69	$39.1	+$13.4	50% 127-128 (255)
TE testBruno2<$100	Zenithavg 51.7¢	$75.99	$13.69	+$14.76	10% 3-28 (31)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,000

Value

$946.15

PnL

-$53.85

Record

45%

403-486 (889)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Zenith

Invested

$252.42

Value

$373.86

PnL

+$121.44

Record

56%

3774-2944 (6718)

BackTestEoCaraio

Zenith

Invested

$547.79

Value

$246.44

PnL

+$135.62

Record

16%

10-54 (64)

Medo3DCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$204.53

Value

$195.23

PnL

-$9.3

Record

6-200 (206)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$118.64

Value

$180.51

PnL

+$61.87

Record

34%

162-314 (476)

Both legs:

Zenith$52.4524.1¢+$73.55

Team Synapse$66.1951¢-$11.68

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$100

Value

$81.18

PnL

-$18.82

Record

10%

39-369 (408)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$62

Value

$58.83

PnL

-$3.17

Record

48%

721-776 (1497)

lryyy<$100

Zenith

Invested

$25.69

Value

$39.1

PnL

+$13.4

Record

50%

127-128 (255)

testBruno2<$100

Zenith

Invested

$75.99

Value

$13.69

PnL

+$14.76

Record

10%

3-28 (31)

Research grade

AvoidTeam Synapse at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Zenith 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Synapse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.