Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs No Hoodwink (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Playoffs

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No Hoodwink (64%) · No Hoodwink at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Zero Tenacity26¢No Hoodwink74¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

No Hoodwink

Consensus Traders

No Hoodwink 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$8.05

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 74.5¢

+58% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo Hoodwink at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

No Hoodwink

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Zero Tenacity26%

No Hoodwink75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No Hoodwink7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,754

Combined PnL+$59.35

Zero Tenacity4 traders

Total Value$158.07

Total Shares579

Combined PnL-$51.31

No Hoodwink — 64%Zero Tenacity — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No Hoodwink. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo Hoodwink 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No Hoodwink 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposh	No Hoodwinkavg 48.4¢	$508.41	$598.24	+$89.82	49% 1169-1236 (2405)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 50¢	$525	$472.5	-$52.5	51% 850-801 (1651)
└ No Hoodwink leg	No Hoodwinkavg 50¢	$262.5	$236.25	-$26.25
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 50¢	$262.5	$236.25	-$26.25
alpheclabs2	No Hoodwinkavg 48.1¢	$489.85	$458.63	-$31.23	45% 300-362 (662)
GA Gaditima	No Hoodwinkavg 43.4¢	$271.33	$281.06	+$9.73	48% 280-300 (580)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 32.8¢	$72.6	$57.47	-$15.13	62% 216-130 (346)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 47¢	$83.87	$52.49	-$31.38	44% 386-482 (868)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 25.4¢	$49	$44.45	-$4.55	41% 702-1012 (1714)
CI cigarettes<$100	No Hoodwinkavg 47¢	$29.58	$28.32	-$1.26	53% 7137-6246 (13383)
38 38791873984189<$100	No Hoodwinkavg 50¢	$15	$13.5	-$1.5	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
SU suntori<$100	No Hoodwinkavg 63.8¢	$19.04	$13.42	-$5.62	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
PA Pan9X<$100	No Hoodwinkavg 48¢	$9.6	$9	-$0.6	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 39¢	$3.91	$3.66	-$0.25	35% 269-489 (758)

poshposh

No Hoodwink

Invested

$508.41

Value

$598.24

PnL

+$89.82

Record

49%

1169-1236 (2405)

NotJumpARB<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$525

Value

$472.5

PnL

-$52.5

Record

51%

850-801 (1651)

Both legs:

No Hoodwink$262.550¢-$26.25

Zero Tenacity$262.550¢-$26.25

alpheclabs2

No Hoodwink

Invested

$489.85

Value

$458.63

PnL

-$31.23

Record

45%

300-362 (662)

Gaditima

No Hoodwink

Invested

$271.33

Value

$281.06

PnL

+$9.73

Record

48%

280-300 (580)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$72.6

Value

$57.47

PnL

-$15.13

Record

62%

216-130 (346)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$83.87

Value

$52.49

PnL

-$31.38

Record

44%

386-482 (868)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$49

Value

$44.45

PnL

-$4.55

Record

41%

702-1012 (1714)

cigarettes<$100

No Hoodwink

Invested

$29.58

Value

$28.32

PnL

-$1.26

Record

53%

7137-6246 (13383)

38791873984189<$100

No Hoodwink

Invested

$15

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

suntori<$100

No Hoodwink

Invested

$19.04

Value

$13.42

PnL

-$5.62

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

Pan9X<$100

No Hoodwink

Invested

$9.6

Value

PnL

-$0.6

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$3.91

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$0.25

Record

35%

269-489 (758)

Research grade

NeutralNo Hoodwink at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

No Hoodwink

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No Hoodwink. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo Hoodwink 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No Hoodwink 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No Hoodwink wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.