Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold LEGION, while the market favors Yellow Submarine (51%). 7 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold LEGION (39%) · LEGION at 50¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 10

Yellow Submarine51¢LEGION49¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LEGION

Consensus Traders

LEGION 39%

Total Value

$30.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 49.5¢

-15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

7 of 18 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Yellow Submarine 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yellow Submarine51%

LEGION50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION7 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares34,998

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Yellow Submarine11 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares25,425

Combined PnL+$409.81

LEGION — 39%Yellow Submarine — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-CTR	LEGIONavg 59.9¢	$13.4K	$11.3K	$-2.1K	57% 503-385 (888)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	LEGIONavg 55.8¢	$5.2K	$4.7K	-$490.62	45% 403-486 (889)
GE GeorgeRe	Yellow Submarineavg 50¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$22.22	53% 689-621 (1310)
RA RandomVibecoder	Yellow Submarineavg 49.3¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$10.5	48% 473-515 (988)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	Yellow Submarineavg 46.2¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$118	5% 10-175 (185)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yellow Submarineavg 44.3¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$168.35	54% 1605-1351 (2956)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	Yellow Submarineavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.02	1% 2-284 (286)
eblomixer	Yellow Submarineavg 50¢	$919.7	$910.5	-$9.2	1% 1-197 (198)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR	LEGIONavg 52¢	$880.25	$871.43	-$8.82	6% 4-62 (66)
VV VVVSSP	Yellow Submarineavg 42.6¢	$711.27	$806.35	+$114.4	16% 7-36 (43)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Yellow Submarineavg 50¢	$737.65	$730.27	-$7.38	17% 14-70 (84)
BI BillBenter2026	Yellow Submarineavg 49.8¢	$500.49	$477.85	-$22.64	12% 59-452 (511)
maytopmayCTR	LEGIONavg 60¢	$480.85	$404.72	-$76.13	7% 15-187 (202)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yellow Submarineavg 44¢	$359.15	$404.04	+$44.89	34% 163-316 (479)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	LEGIONavg 60¢	$303.35	$255.32	-$48.03	53% 17-15 (32)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	LEGIONavg 60¢	$160	$134.67	-$25.33	10% 39-369 (408)
Medo3DCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 57¢	$23.06	$21.24	-$1.82	3% 6-200 (206)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.48	+$0.08	22% 141-486 (627)

Sisyphus-CTR

LEGION

Invested

$13,404

Value

$11.3K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

57%

503-385 (888)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

LEGION

Invested

$5,198

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$490.62

Record

45%

403-486 (889)

GeorgeRe

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,222

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$22.22

Record

53%

689-621 (1310)

RandomVibecoder

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,142.71

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$10.5

Record

48%

473-515 (988)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,664

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$118

Record

10-175 (185)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,443.82

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$168.35

Record

54%

1605-1351 (2956)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,471.68

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.02

Record

2-284 (286)

eblomixer

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$919.7

Value

$910.5

PnL

-$9.2

Record

1-197 (198)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR

LEGION

Invested

$880.25

Value

$871.43

PnL

-$8.82

Record

4-62 (66)

VVVSSP

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$711.27

Value

$806.35

PnL

+$114.4

Record

16%

7-36 (43)

UNIVERSEMVP

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$737.65

Value

$730.27

PnL

-$7.38

Record

17%

14-70 (84)

BillBenter2026

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$500.49

Value

$477.85

PnL

-$22.64

Record

12%

59-452 (511)

maytopmayCTR

LEGION

Invested

$480.85

Value

$404.72

PnL

-$76.13

Record

15-187 (202)

omnibus-076daa

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$359.15

Value

$404.04

PnL

+$44.89

Record

34%

163-316 (479)

PourpelNourpelCTR

LEGION

Invested

$303.35

Value

$255.32

PnL

-$48.03

Record

53%

17-15 (32)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

LEGION

Invested

$160

Value

$134.67

PnL

-$25.33

Record

10%

39-369 (408)

Medo3DCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$23.06

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$1.82

Record

6-200 (206)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.08

Record

22%

141-486 (627)

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

7 of 18 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Yellow Submarine 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LEGION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.