Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner

8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold LEGION (42%) · LEGION at 53¢ · $57K held · ends Nov 10

Yellow Submarine48¢LEGION52¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LEGION

Consensus Traders

LEGION 42%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$57.1K

Combined PnL

$-11.2K

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 52.5¢

+14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

8 of 19 top traders (42%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yellow Submarine48%

LEGION53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION8 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares54,625

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Yellow Submarine11 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares29,746

Combined PnL$-5.8K

LEGION — 42%Yellow Submarine — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	LEGIONavg 49¢	$10.4K	$8.8K	$-1.6K	45% 403-486 (889)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	LEGIONavg 31.3¢	$6.7K	$8.3K	+$1.8K	48% 473-515 (988)
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 31.3¢	$3.3K	$5.9K	+$2.6K
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 58¢	$3.2K	$2.4K	-$748.44
Medo3DARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 44.8¢	$5.0K	$7.1K	+$2.1K	3% 6-200 (206)
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 26.9¢	$2.0K	$3.9K	+$1.9K
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 44.8¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$175.1
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 52.4¢	$4.7K	$5.6K	+$831.95	54% 1599-1345 (2944)
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 31.3¢	$1.7K	$2.8K	+$1.2K
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 52.4¢	$3.1K	$2.7K	-$346.11
GE GeorgeRe	LEGIONavg 56.9¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$294.26	53% 689-621 (1310)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	LEGIONavg 26.7¢	$3.8K	$3.5K	-$308.98	1% 2-284 (286)
VV VVVSSPCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 47.9¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$51.3	16% 7-36 (43)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 69.1¢	$6.0K	$2.6K	$-1.2K	17% 14-70 (84)
Hawk.liveCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 79.1¢	$4.4K	$2.6K	$-1.8K	56% 657-508 (1165)
GX gxxyyCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 80¢	$4.0K	$2.3K	$-1.7K	68% 474-218 (692)
QW qwerqr1251251ARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 73.3¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$402.43	9% 14-134 (148)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 73.3¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$403.45
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 41.4¢	$533.7	$534.73	+$1.02
SI Sisyphus-	LEGIONavg 57.8¢	$4.3K	$1.7K	$-2.6K	57% 503-385 (888)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 68.9¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	-$651.04	7% 4-51 (55)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 41.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$3.13	5% 10-175 (185)
Sunshine.Smile	LEGIONavg 56.9¢	$597.47	$571.98	-$25.49	—
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 57.7¢	$640.67	$512.51	-$91.98	11% 58-451 (509)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 50¢	$480.54	$446.9	-$33.64	5% 6-118 (124)
cs2.quant	LEGIONavg 57.8¢	$750	$382.94	-$367.06	6% 5-78 (83)
PO PourpelNourpel	LEGIONavg 57¢	$305.52	$219.76	-$85.76	53% 17-15 (32)
alpheclabs2ARB<$100	LEGIONavg 22.2¢	$160.34	$204.03	+$43.69	49% 65-68 (133)
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 22.2¢	$137.63	$160.94	+$23.31
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 39¢	$22.71	$43.09	+$20.38
MA madar78CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 66.2¢	$14.3K	$187.38	-$232.9	24% 9-28 (37)
LR lryyyARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 59¢	$122.2	$119.31	-$2.89	50% 127-128 (255)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 59¢	$93.38	$70.47	-$22.91
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 32.8¢	$28.82	$48.84	+$20.02
PA pauleta23CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 73¢	$103.19	$65.02	-$38.17	19% 98-408 (506)
maytopmay	LEGIONavg 59.3¢	$151.62	$60.12	-$91.5	7% 15-187 (202)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 85¢	$21.47	$11.75	-$9.72	10% 39-369 (408)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

LEGION

Invested

$10,412.17

Value

$8.8K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

45%

403-486 (889)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

LEGION

Invested

$6,656.67

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

48%

473-515 (988)

Both legs:

LEGION$3,326.8431.3¢+$2.6K

Yellow Submarine$3,193.5158¢-$748.44

Medo3DARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$5,036.34

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

6-200 (206)

Both legs:

LEGION$1,967.3226.9¢+$1.9K

Yellow Submarine$3,030.4544.8¢+$175.1

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$4,739.96

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$831.95

Record

54%

1599-1345 (2944)

Both legs:

LEGION$1,656.8231.3¢+$1.2K

Yellow Submarine$3,083.1452.4¢-$346.11

GeorgeRe

LEGION

Invested

$4,944.67

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$294.26

Record

53%

689-621 (1310)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

LEGION

Invested

$3,767.82

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$308.98

Record

2-284 (286)

VVVSSPCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,761.98

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$51.3

Record

16%

7-36 (43)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$5,965.65

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

17%

14-70 (84)

Hawk.liveCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$4,352.86

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

56%

657-508 (1165)

gxxyyCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$3,999.85

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

68%

474-218 (692)

qwerqr1251251ARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,533.7

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$402.43

Record

14-134 (148)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$2,00073.3¢-$403.45

LEGION$533.741.4¢+$1.02

Sisyphus-

LEGION

Invested

$4,300.01

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

57%

503-385 (888)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$651.04

Record

4-51 (55)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,019.59

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$3.13

Record

10-175 (185)

Sunshine.Smile

LEGION

Invested

$597.47

Value

$571.98

PnL

-$25.49

Record

—

BillBenter2026CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$640.67

Value

$512.51

PnL

-$91.98

Record

11%

58-451 (509)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$480.54

Value

$446.9

PnL

-$33.64

Record

6-118 (124)

cs2.quant

LEGION

Invested

$750

Value

$382.94

PnL

-$367.06

Record

5-78 (83)

PourpelNourpel

LEGION

Invested

$305.52

Value

$219.76

PnL

-$85.76

Record

53%

17-15 (32)

alpheclabs2ARB<$100

LEGION

Invested

$160.34

Value

$204.03

PnL

+$43.69

Record

49%

65-68 (133)

Both legs:

LEGION$137.6322.2¢+$23.31

Yellow Submarine$22.7139¢+$20.38

madar78CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$14,328.09

Value

$187.38

PnL

-$232.9

Record

24%

9-28 (37)

lryyyARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$122.2

Value

$119.31

PnL

-$2.89

Record

50%

127-128 (255)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$93.3859¢-$22.91

LEGION$28.8232.8¢+$20.02

pauleta23CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$103.19

Value

$65.02

PnL

-$38.17

Record

19%

98-408 (506)

maytopmay

LEGION

Invested

$151.62

Value

$60.12

PnL

-$91.5

Record

15-187 (202)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$21.47

Value

$11.75

PnL

-$9.72

Record

10%

39-369 (408)

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

8 of 19 top traders (42%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LEGION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.