Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Inner Circle, while the market favors Yakult Brothers (57%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Inner Circle (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Inner Circle (44%) · Inner Circle at 43¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 10

Yakult Brothers57¢Inner Circle43¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Inner Circle

Consensus Traders

Inner Circle 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$669.11

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 42.5¢

-29% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yakult Brothers 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yakult Brothers57%

Inner Circle43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Inner Circle4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,993

Combined PnL-$787.21

Yakult Brothers5 traders

Total Value$628.79

Total Shares1,060

Combined PnL+$118.1

Inner Circle — 44%Yakult Brothers — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Inner Circle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpInner Circle 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYakult Brothers 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Inner Circle 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 47.7¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	+$14.96	17% 38-183 (221)
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 47.7¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$299.77
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 54.8¢	$995.31	$771.84	-$284.81
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Inner Circleavg 59.7¢	$2.6K	$1.8K	-$773.8	6% 16-269 (285)
CA calculate10CTR	Inner Circleavg 52.8¢	$682.72	$563.71	-$56.02	18% 9-42 (51)
alpheclabs2	Yakult Brothersavg 45.7¢	$331.18	$423.88	+$92.7	47% 37-42 (79)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Inner Circleavg 77¢	$124.92	$163.21	+$38.28	2% 7-301 (308)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 48.3¢	$72.5	$86.25	+$13.75	38% 88-145 (233)
LR lryyy<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 51.5¢	$56.96	$62.82	+$4.98	60% 37-25 (62)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 81¢	$48.76	$53.08	+$4.32	66% 43-22 (65)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 51¢	$37.74	$43.29	+$5.55	20% 30-117 (147)
SE sentrio<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 50.6¢	$11.43	$12.54	+$1.11	23% 45-152 (197)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$2,964.98

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$14.96

Record

17%

38-183 (221)

Both legs:

Yakult Brothers$1,460.3647.7¢+$299.77

Inner Circle$995.3154.8¢-$284.81

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$2,608.7

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$773.8

Record

16-269 (285)

calculate10CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$682.72

Value

$563.71

PnL

-$56.02

Record

18%

9-42 (51)

alpheclabs2

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$331.18

Value

$423.88

PnL

+$92.7

Record

47%

37-42 (79)

darkumbreon88CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$124.92

Value

$163.21

PnL

+$38.28

Record

7-301 (308)

cigarettes<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$72.5

Value

$86.25

PnL

+$13.75

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

lryyy<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$56.96

Value

$62.82

PnL

+$4.98

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$48.76

Value

$53.08

PnL

+$4.32

Record

66%

43-22 (65)

SlickRick123<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$37.74

Value

$43.29

PnL

+$5.55

Record

20%

30-117 (147)

sentrio<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$11.43

Value

$12.54

PnL

+$1.11

Record

23%

45-152 (197)

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yakult Brothers 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Inner Circle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpInner Circle 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYakult Brothers 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Inner Circle 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Inner Circle wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.