Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold InterActive Philippines (38%) · InterActive Philippines at 63¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 10

Yakult Brothers38¢InterActive Philippines62¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

InterActive Philippines

Consensus Traders

InterActive Philippines 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.6K

Combined PnL

$980.5

Smart Money Entry

65.5¢ → 62.5¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralInterActive Philippines at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

InterActive Philippines

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yakult Brothers38%

InterActive Philippines63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

InterActive Philippines5 traders

Total Value$28.8K

Total Shares42,222

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Yakult Brothers8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares7,863

Combined PnL-$278.13

InterActive Philippines — 38%Yakult Brothers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on InterActive Philippines. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYakult Brothers 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yakult Brothers 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	InterActive Philippinesavg 64.2¢	$22.2K	$23.5K	+$1.3K	45% 404-486 (890)
JE jelly2026	InterActive Philippinesavg 71¢	$5.2K	$3.5K	+$8.58	46% 19-22 (41)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 39¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$339.75	48% 474-516 (990)
XU xuxuntao	InterActive Philippinesavg 72.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$35.36	29% 16-40 (56)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314	InterActive Philippinesavg 71.4¢	$734.73	$710.48	-$24.25	5% 6-118 (124)
VV VVVSSPCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 35.8¢	$265.5	$311.64	+$46.14	20% 9-37 (46)
Medo3DCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 24¢	$267.91	$295.82	+$27.91	3% 7-201 (208)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 68.7¢	$298.91	$190.53	-$14.63	19% 17-72 (89)
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 35.1¢	$90.6	$96.78	-$5.38
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 68.7¢	$103	$93.75	-$9.25
BE BeastsCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 41.3¢	$226.78	$173.01	-$53.77	— 0-7 (7)
BA BackTestEoCaraioCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 27.1¢	$248.37	$154.85	+$30.37	16% 10-54 (64)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 73.2¢	$91.3	$96.65	+$5.35	48% 767-833 (1600)
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 73.2¢	$71.1	$74.32	+$3.22
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 21.3¢	$20.2	$22.32	+$2.13
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 29.5¢	$29.58	$28.27	-$1.31	50% 132-132 (264)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 26¢	$10	$12.12	+$2.12	20% 104-409 (513)
TE testBruno2CTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 23.5¢	$33.06	$8.99	+$10.16	22% 8-28 (36)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 38¢	$1.23	$1.87	+$0.65	41% 3007-4413 (7420)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$22,214.76

Value

$23.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

45%

404-486 (890)

jelly2026

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$5,215.43

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$8.58

Record

46%

19-22 (41)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$1,891.39

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$339.75

Record

48%

474-516 (990)

xuxuntao

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$1,125.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$35.36

Record

29%

16-40 (56)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$734.73

Value

$710.48

PnL

-$24.25

Record

6-118 (124)

VVVSSPCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$265.5

Value

$311.64

PnL

+$46.14

Record

20%

9-37 (46)

Medo3DCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$267.91

Value

$295.82

PnL

+$27.91

Record

7-201 (208)

calculate10ARB<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$298.91

Value

$190.53

PnL

-$14.63

Record

19%

17-72 (89)

Both legs:

Yakult Brothers$90.635.1¢-$5.38

InterActive Philippines$10368.7¢-$9.25

BeastsCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$226.78

Value

$173.01

PnL

-$53.77

Record

—

0-7 (7)

BackTestEoCaraioCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$248.37

Value

$154.85

PnL

+$30.37

Record

16%

10-54 (64)

38791873984189ARB<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$91.3

Value

$96.65

PnL

+$5.35

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

Both legs:

InterActive Philippines$71.173.2¢+$3.22

Yakult Brothers$20.221.3¢+$2.13

lryyyCTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$29.58

Value

$28.27

PnL

-$1.31

Record

50%

132-132 (264)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$10

Value

$12.12

PnL

+$2.12

Record

20%

104-409 (513)

testBruno2CTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$33.06

Value

$8.99

PnL

+$10.16

Record

22%

8-28 (36)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$0.65

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

Research grade

NeutralInterActive Philippines at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

InterActive Philippines

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on InterActive Philippines. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYakult Brothers 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yakult Brothers 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that InterActive Philippines wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.