Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Xipto Esports, while the market favors Zero Tenacity (100%). 12 of 30 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner

12 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (40%) · Xipto Esports at 0.1¢ · $75K held · ends Nov 14

Xipto Esports<1¢Zero Tenacity>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$75.3K

Combined PnL

$9.8K

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidXipto Esports at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

12 of 30 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Zero Tenacity 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports0%

Zero Tenacity100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zero Tenacity18 traders

Total Value$67.9K

Total Shares72,883

Combined PnL+$30.9K

Xipto Esports12 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares57,365

Combined PnL$-21.1K

Zero Tenacity — 60%Xipto Esports — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Zero Tenacityavg 23.8¢	$6.1K	$21.8K	+$15.8K	47% 471-537 (1008)
handandfacetatto	Zero Tenacityavg 99.9¢	$12.2K	$12.2K	+$6.1	100% 99-0 (99)
RA RandomVibecoder	Zero Tenacityavg 32¢	$2.5K	$6.7K	+$4.2K	48% 536-585 (1121)
BI BillBenter2026	Zero Tenacityavg 44.8¢	$3.7K	$4.7K	+$1.1K	29% 241-579 (820)
GX gxxyy	Zero Tenacityavg 72.7¢	$3.0K	$4.1K	+$1.1K	69% 507-227 (734)
BU Bunnycat	Zero Tenacityavg 41.5¢	$1.7K	$4.1K	+$2.3K	57% 27-20 (47)
CyberScore.liveCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 49.9¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	-$715.76	52% 35-32 (67)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190	Zero Tenacityavg 40.7¢	$1.5K	$3.3K	+$1.7K	60% 28-19 (47)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	Zero Tenacityavg 22.6¢	$542.15	$2.3K	+$1.7K	15% 39-213 (252)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314	Zero Tenacityavg 54.1¢	$1.2K	$2.3K	+$1.0K	19% 32-140 (172)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266	Zero Tenacityavg 49.5¢	$1.0K	$2.0K	+$1.0K	14% 12-72 (84)
Skritopoolniy	Zero Tenacityavg 36¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$105.6	10% 41-388 (429)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 39¢	$4.8K	$1.1K	$-3.7K	15% 15-82 (97)
CC ccllar	Zero Tenacityavg 72.9¢	$926.67	$785.65	+$2.94	40% 49-73 (122)
R2 r2d2v2CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 76¢	$750	$754.93	+$4.93	14% 30-186 (216)
Hawk.live	Zero Tenacityavg 60.3¢	$407.93	$675.66	+$267.73	57% 690-518 (1208)
CA calculate10	Zero Tenacityavg 91.7¢	$1.1K	$645.26	-$38.15	36% 74-131 (205)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 53.7¢	$1.3K	$619.99	-$128.22	52% 820-759 (1579)
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 47¢	$246.51	$425.24	+$158.73
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 53.7¢	$550	$194.75	-$286.95
PA pauleta23	Zero Tenacityavg 45.9¢	$234.5	$510.51	+$276.01	40% 433-650 (1083)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 74.8¢	$5.1K	$339.22	$-4.7K	— 7-3 (10)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 73¢	$305.64	$316.11	+$10.47	56% 73-57 (130)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 56.6¢	$242.91	$273.01	+$30.1	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
DO DotaBotRebornCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 72¢	$1.4K	$264.72	$-1.1K	68% 51-24 (75)
PA panpidaras1	Zero Tenacityavg 45.5¢	$160	$263.5	+$130.16	14% 48-291 (339)
maytopmayCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 79.6¢	$1.7K	$229.46	$-1.4K	21% 55-206 (261)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$6,108.41

Value

$21.8K

PnL

+$15.8K

Record

47%

471-537 (1008)

handandfacetatto

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$12,180.34

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$6.1

Record

100%

99-0 (99)

RandomVibecoder

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$2,514.09

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

48%

536-585 (1121)

BillBenter2026

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$3,742.71

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

29%

241-579 (820)

gxxyy

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$2,981.82

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

69%

507-227 (734)

Bunnycat

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,746.88

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

57%

27-20 (47)

CyberScore.liveCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3,999.95

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$715.76

Record

52%

35-32 (67)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,516.45

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

60%

28-19 (47)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$542.15

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

15%

39-213 (252)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,230.37

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

19%

32-140 (172)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

14%

12-72 (84)

Skritopoolniy

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,520.59

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$105.6

Record

10%

41-388 (429)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$4,794.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

15%

15-82 (97)

ccllar

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$926.67

Value

$785.65

PnL

+$2.94

Record

40%

49-73 (122)

r2d2v2CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$750

Value

$754.93

PnL

+$4.93

Record

14%

30-186 (216)

Hawk.live

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$407.93

Value

$675.66

PnL

+$267.73

Record

57%

690-518 (1208)

calculate10

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,108.22

Value

$645.26

PnL

-$38.15

Record

36%

74-131 (205)

NotJumpARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,321.99

Value

$619.99

PnL

-$128.22

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

Both legs:

Zero Tenacity$246.5147¢+$158.73

Xipto Esports$55053.7¢-$286.95

pauleta23

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$234.5

Value

$510.51

PnL

+$276.01

Record

40%

433-650 (1083)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$5,074.85

Value

$339.22

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

—

7-3 (10)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$305.64

Value

$316.11

PnL

+$10.47

Record

56%

73-57 (130)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$242.91

Value

$273.01

PnL

+$30.1

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

DotaBotRebornCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,411.82

Value

$264.72

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

68%

51-24 (75)

panpidaras1

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$160

Value

$263.5

PnL

+$130.16

Record

14%

48-291 (339)

maytopmayCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,660.58

Value

$229.46

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

21%

55-206 (261)

Research grade

AvoidXipto Esports at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

12 of 30 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Zero Tenacity 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.