Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (78%) · Xipto Esports at 100¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 5

Xipto Esports>99¢Zero Tenacity<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

7 of 9 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports100%

Zero Tenacity0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports7 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares8,074

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Zero Tenacity2 traders

Total Value$57.7

Total Shares765

Combined PnL-$232.4

Xipto Esports — 78%Zero Tenacity — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 35.1¢	$5.6K	$5.8K	+$151.39	49% 843-891 (1734)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 56¢	$2.8K	$3.6K	+$857.83
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 35.1¢	$2.9K	$2.2K	-$706.44
SI Sisyphus-	Xipto Esportsavg 72.7¢	$3.0K	$4.1K	+$1.1K	55% 779-641 (1420)
LO looppau	Xipto Esportsavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 12671-101 (12772)
PO PourpelNourpelARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 63.1¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$93.56	53% 647-573 (1220)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 63.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$125.87
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 28.1¢	$402	$621.43	+$219.43
BU Bunnycat	Xipto Esportsavg 62.1¢	$372.41	$599.66	+$227.26	66% 116-59 (175)
maytopmay	Xipto Esportsavg 77.6¢	$344.86	$444.06	+$99.2	61% 304-197 (501)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Xipto Esportsavg 62.2¢	$1.0K	$314.69	+$22.57	53% 1192-1044 (2236)
poshposhARB<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 36.4¢	$188.68	$190.6	+$1.93	57% 12692-9758 (22450)
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 36.4¢	$148.87	$145.26	-$3.61
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 56.6¢	$39.81	$45.35	+$5.54
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 44.7¢	$67.59	$57.4	-$10.19	59% 32944-23128 (56072)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 58.2¢	$55.97	$47.58	-$8.39	50% 21156-21414 (42570)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 51¢	$2.08	$2.02	-$0.06	52% 8756-7964 (16720)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 36.2¢	$222.52	$0.31	-$222.22	47% 11685-13388 (25073)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$5,642.98

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$151.39

Record

49%

843-891 (1734)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$2,753.4756¢+$857.83

Zero Tenacity$2,889.5135.1¢-$706.44

Sisyphus-

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,989.33

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

55%

779-641 (1420)

looppau

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

12671-101 (12772)

PourpelNourpelARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,607.88

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$93.56

Record

53%

647-573 (1220)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$1,205.8863.1¢-$125.87

Zero Tenacity$40228.1¢+$219.43

Bunnycat

Xipto Esports

Invested

$372.41

Value

$599.66

PnL

+$227.26

Record

66%

116-59 (175)

maytopmay

Xipto Esports

Invested

$344.86

Value

$444.06

PnL

+$99.2

Record

61%

304-197 (501)

TommyLeePeeca

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,033.26

Value

$314.69

PnL

+$22.57

Record

53%

1192-1044 (2236)

poshposhARB<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$188.68

Value

$190.6

PnL

+$1.93

Record

57%

12692-9758 (22450)

Both legs:

Zero Tenacity$148.8736.4¢-$3.61

Xipto Esports$39.8156.6¢+$5.54

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$67.59

Value

$57.4

PnL

-$10.19

Record

59%

32944-23128 (56072)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$55.97

Value

$47.58

PnL

-$8.39

Record

50%

21156-21414 (42570)

ameisgoat11<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

8756-7964 (16720)

topdogbigboiCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$222.52

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$222.22

Record

47%

11685-13388 (25073)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

7 of 9 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.