Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (45%) · Xipto Esports at 100¢ · $129K held · ends Nov 10

Xipto Esports>99¢Yellow Submarine<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 45%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$129.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 100¢

+81% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

9 of 20 top traders (45%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports100%

Yellow Submarine0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports9 traders

Total Value$94.3K

Total Shares118,045

Combined PnL+$27.0K

Yellow Submarine11 traders

Total Value$29.2K

Total Shares95,017

Combined PnL$-29.6K

Xipto Esports — 45%Yellow Submarine — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Xipto Esportsavg 35.7¢	$23.5K	$42.2K	+$18.7K	6% 16-269 (285)
CoinTrick	Xipto Esportsavg 99.9¢	$35.2K	$35.2K	+$17.61	— 16-0 (16)
GX gxxyy	Xipto Esportsavg 35.9¢	$6.9K	$12.4K	+$5.7K	— 4-8 (12)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 66.4¢	$10.4K	$11.4K	-$591.91	3% 6-200 (206)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 84.3¢	$7.1K	$5.0K	$-2.2K	28% 13-34 (47)
GE GeorgeReCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 63.8¢	$5.3K	$4.9K	-$403.07	1% 4-312 (316)
YA yadensCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 73.7¢	$15.7K	$4.5K	$-6.7K	13% 10-70 (80)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 64.7¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$115.35	6% 9-142 (151)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 29.8¢	$715.2	$1.5K	+$807.05
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 64.7¢	$1.6K	$896.34	-$691.7
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 73.1¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$146	38% 38-62 (100)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 73.1¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$277.83
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 25¢	$662.48	$1.1K	+$423.84
XU xuxuntao	Xipto Esportsavg 38.6¢	$800	$2.1K	+$1.3K	29% 13-32 (45)
WH whosay	Xipto Esportsavg 60.4¢	$1.2K	$2.0K	+$775.68	— 2-0 (2)
II iii252CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 60.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$211.11	0% 0-293 (293)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 50¢	$911.24	$1.1K	+$164.02	5% 2-42 (44)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 61¢	$455.24	$772.13	+$279.91	50% 14-14 (28)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 16.7¢	$177.45	$436.51	+$328.26
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 61¢	$347	$335.62	-$48.35
GO GooGooGaga1CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 63.5¢	$3.0K	$570.28	+$344.61	— 7-12 (19)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 30.8¢	$397.69	$433.83	+$36.14	20% 56-219 (275)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 30.8¢	$227.18	$306.08	+$78.9
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 78.1¢	$170.52	$127.75	-$42.76
MA madar78CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 64.7¢	$23.5K	$429.36	$-1.2K	19% 6-25 (31)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Xipto Esportsavg 38.5¢	$99.99	$259.46	+$159.47	6% 12-173 (185)
AA aaaa298	Xipto Esportsavg 30.7¢	$181.31	$146.48	+$409.08	0% 0-197 (197)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 53.8¢	$25.3K	$13.08	$-11.5K	18% 12-56 (68)
QW qwerqr1251251CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 74.4¢	$20.2K	$8.84	$-7.6K	10% 10-95 (105)
SE sentrio<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 44¢	$6.4	$5.96	-$0.44	22% 46-161 (207)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 22.5¢	$2.88	$5.24	+$2.37	30% 104-243 (347)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 1¢	$0.44	$0.22	-$0.22	2% 1-63 (64)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Xipto Esports

Invested

$23,518.23

Value

$42.2K

PnL

+$18.7K

Record

16-269 (285)

CoinTrick

Xipto Esports

Invested

$35,176.6

Value

$35.2K

PnL

+$17.61

Record

—

16-0 (16)

gxxyy

Xipto Esports

Invested

$6,894.19

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

—

4-8 (12)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$10,446.42

Value

$11.4K

PnL

-$591.91

Record

6-200 (206)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$7,127.16

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

28%

13-34 (47)

GeorgeReCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$5,350

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$403.07

Record

4-312 (316)

yadensCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$15,678.11

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-6.7K

Record

13%

10-70 (80)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,303.23

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$115.35

Record

9-142 (151)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$715.229.8¢+$807.05

Yellow Submarine$1,588.0464.7¢-$691.7

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,103.5

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$146

Record

38%

38-62 (100)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$1,441.0173.1¢-$277.83

Xipto Esports$662.4825¢+$423.84

xuxuntao

Xipto Esports

Invested

$800

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

29%

13-32 (45)

whosay

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,184.25

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$775.68

Record

—

2-0 (2)

iii252CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,191.88

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$211.11

Record

0-293 (293)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$911.24

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$164.02

Record

2-42 (44)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$455.24

Value

$772.13

PnL

+$279.91

Record

50%

14-14 (28)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$177.4516.7¢+$328.26

Yellow Submarine$34761¢-$48.35

GooGooGaga1CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,982.27

Value

$570.28

PnL

+$344.61

Record

—

7-12 (19)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$397.69

Value

$433.83

PnL

+$36.14

Record

20%

56-219 (275)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$227.1830.8¢+$78.9

Yellow Submarine$170.5278.1¢-$42.76

madar78CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$23,541.65

Value

$429.36

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

19%

6-25 (31)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Xipto Esports

Invested

$99.99

Value

$259.46

PnL

+$159.47

Record

12-173 (185)

aaaa298

Xipto Esports

Invested

$181.31

Value

$146.48

PnL

+$409.08

Record

0-197 (197)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$25,309.01

Value

$13.08

PnL

$-11.5K

Record

18%

12-56 (68)

qwerqr1251251CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$20,237.02

Value

$8.84

PnL

$-7.6K

Record

10%

10-95 (105)

sentrio<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$6.4

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$0.44

Record

22%

46-161 (207)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2.88

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$2.37

Record

30%

104-243 (347)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.22

Record

1-63 (64)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

9 of 20 top traders (45%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.