Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Xipto Esports, while the market favors Yellow Submarine (53%). 13 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner

13 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (54%) · Xipto Esports at 48¢ · $71K held · ends Nov 10

Xipto Esports48¢Yellow Submarine52¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 54%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$70.6K

Combined PnL

-$133.74

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 47.5¢

-19% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

13 of 24 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Yellow Submarine 53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports48%

Yellow Submarine53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports13 traders

Total Value$27.7K

Total Shares53,526

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Yellow Submarine11 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares35,781

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Xipto Esports — 54%Yellow Submarine — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yellow Submarine 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SkritopoolniyARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 37.8¢	$9.5K	$9.7K	+$1.9K	—
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 37.8¢	$5.0K	$6.6K	+$1.6K
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 50.1¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$304
UN UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 66.3¢	$13.6K	$8.9K	-$906.61	—
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 66.3¢	$7.7K	$5.5K	$-2.5K
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 32.7¢	$2.1K	$3.4K	+$1.6K
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 51.6¢	$6.3K	$6.9K	+$601.69	—
Tolkonevminus2	Yellow Submarineavg 50.3¢	$7.8K	$6.1K	+$323.61	—
YA yadensCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 66.4¢	$6.9K	$5.3K	$-1.6K	—
GE GeorgeReCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 59.9¢	$6.0K	$4.7K	$-1.2K	—
RA RandomVibecoder	Yellow Submarineavg 34.1¢	$2.8K	$4.3K	+$1.5K	—
MA madar78	Yellow Submarineavg 38.7¢	$6.9K	$4.0K	+$1.1K	—
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 62.7¢	$3.7K	$3.0K	-$713.05	—
QW qwerqr1251251ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 66¢	$3.9K	$2.4K	-$415.94	—
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 41.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$141.25
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 66¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$557.19
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 61.4¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$82.54	—
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 38.2¢	$963.3	$1.3K	+$361.77
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 61.4¢	$1.2K	$957.63	-$279.22
errormarginCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 53¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$261.21	—
0X 0xNuttawutCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 49¢	$4.1K	$1.9K	-$147.39	—
FatsLivesMatterCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$9.85	—
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314	Yellow Submarineavg 46¢	$935.5	$1.1K	+$131.95	—
NO nomoredream	Yellow Submarineavg 30.1¢	$594.68	$1.0K	+$441.9	—
WH whosayCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 71¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$400	—
GO GooGooGaga1CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 61¢	$999.99	$991.8	-$8.2	—
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 62.6¢	$990.48	$990.81	+$0.33	—
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 62.6¢	$638.77	$520.19	-$118.58
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 36.6¢	$351.71	$470.62	+$118.91
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	Yellow Submarineavg 35.6¢	$742.24	$649.67	-$92.57	—
II iii252ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 61.3¢	$500.57	$502.81	+$2.24	—
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 61.3¢	$282.33	$285.43	+$3.1
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 38.2¢	$218.24	$217.38	-$0.86
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Yellow Submarineavg 31.7¢	$265.8	$410.28	+$144.48	—
AA aaaa298	Yellow Submarineavg 33.5¢	$172.57	$270.44	+$97.87	—
PA pauleta23	Yellow Submarineavg 44.5¢	$220	$259.45	+$39.45	—
maytopmayCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 65.7¢	$197.47	$151.9	-$45.57	—

SkritopoolniyARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$9,479.16

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

—

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$5,042.2237.8¢+$1.6K

Xipto Esports$3,103.4250.1¢+$304

UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$13,584.17

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$906.61

Record

—

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$7,723.4866.3¢$-2.5K

Yellow Submarine$2,087.1732.7¢+$1.6K

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$6,300

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$601.69

Record

—

Tolkonevminus2

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$7,817.92

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$323.61

Record

—

yadensCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$6,873.44

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

—

GeorgeReCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$5,988.95

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

—

RandomVibecoder

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,762.31

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

—

madar78

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$6,938.71

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

—

Sisyphus-CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3,667.71

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$713.05

Record

—

qwerqr1251251ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3,863.44

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$415.94

Record

—

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$1,052.2241.9¢+$141.25

Xipto Esports$1,561.8166¢-$557.19

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,200.15

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$82.54

Record

—

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$963.338.2¢+$361.77

Xipto Esports$1,236.8561.4¢-$279.22

errormarginCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,500.26

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$261.21

Record

—

0xNuttawutCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$4,142.09

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$147.39

Record

—

FatsLivesMatterCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,299.96

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$9.85

Record

—

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$935.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$131.95

Record

—

nomoredream

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$594.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$441.9

Record

—

whosayCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,420

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$400

Record

—

GooGooGaga1CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$999.99

Value

$991.8

PnL

-$8.2

Record

—

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$990.48

Value

$990.81

PnL

+$0.33

Record

—

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$638.7762.6¢-$118.58

Yellow Submarine$351.7136.6¢+$118.91

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$742.24

Value

$649.67

PnL

-$92.57

Record

—

iii252ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$500.57

Value

$502.81

PnL

+$2.24

Record

—

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$282.3361.3¢+$3.1

Yellow Submarine$218.2438.2¢-$0.86

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$265.8

Value

$410.28

PnL

+$144.48

Record

—

aaaa298

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$172.57

Value

$270.44

PnL

+$97.87

Record

—

pauleta23

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$220

Value

$259.45

PnL

+$39.45

Record

—

maytopmayCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$197.47

Value

$151.9

PnL

-$45.57

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

13 of 24 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Yellow Submarine 53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yellow Submarine 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.