Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Team Synapse - Game 1 Winner

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (68%) · Xipto Esports at 88¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 9

Xipto Esports88¢Team Synapse12¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 68%

Total Value

$44.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

68.6¢ → 87.5¢

+28% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports88%

Team Synapse13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports13 traders

Total Value$39.7K

Total Shares46,486

Combined PnL+$7.2K

Team Synapse6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares42,875

Combined PnL$-9.3K

Xipto Esports — 68%Team Synapse — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Xipto Esportsavg 65.4¢	$14.8K	$20.8K	+$6.0K	59% 1036-727 (1763)
SI Sisyphus-	Xipto Esportsavg 75.4¢	$8.4K	$10.2K	+$1.8K	55% 850-704 (1554)
GE GeorgeRe	Xipto Esportsavg 66.3¢	$5.4K	$4.5K	-$831.56	54% 1196-1033 (2229)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Xipto Esportsavg 68.7¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$120.47	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
Medo3DCTR	Team Synapseavg 35.2¢	$6.5K	$1.8K	$-4.8K	41% 198-289 (487)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Team Synapseavg 32¢	$4.5K	$1.6K	$-2.9K	46% 680-798 (1478)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Team Synapseavg 27.9¢	$2.4K	$813.9	$-1.6K	48% 895-955 (1850)
R2 r2d2v2	Xipto Esportsavg 74¢	$599.99	$454.05	-$145.94	55% 321-267 (588)
PO PourpelNourpel	Xipto Esportsavg 72.4¢	$309.29	$386.82	+$77.54	51% 706-670 (1376)
maytopmay	Xipto Esportsavg 80¢	$327.9	$377.32	+$49.42	60% 336-227 (563)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Team Synapseavg 39.3¢	$328.03	$366.94	+$38.91	64% 131-74 (205)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	Xipto Esportsavg 71.6¢	$3.5K	$346.43	-$54.75	61% 660-425 (1085)
CA calculate10	Xipto Esportsavg 78¢	$583.89	$244.01	+$88.88	54% 1396-1199 (2595)
38 38791873984189	Xipto Esportsavg 65.8¢	$125.66	$127.22	+$6.84	48% 72180-77921 (150101)
MA madar78	Xipto Esportsavg 83.5¢	$1.4K	$116.1	+$52.86	67% 87-42 (129)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Team Synapseavg 27.5¢	$261.86	$104.59	-$157.27	50% 24127-24236 (48363)
LR lryyy	Xipto Esportsavg 64.8¢	$96.18	$103.34	+$7.16	48% 40309-43267 (83576)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 65.2¢	$10.17	$8.74	-$1.43	33% 1272-2598 (3870)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 39¢	$5	$1.22	-$3.78	32% 21943-45829 (67772)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Xipto Esports

Invested

$14,801.91

Value

$20.8K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

59%

1036-727 (1763)

Sisyphus-

Xipto Esports

Invested

$8,376.06

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

55%

850-704 (1554)

GeorgeRe

Xipto Esports

Invested

$5,357.66

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$831.56

Record

54%

1196-1033 (2229)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,868.77

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$120.47

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

Medo3DCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$6,520.62

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

41%

198-289 (487)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$4,480.39

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

46%

680-798 (1478)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$2,387.95

Value

$813.9

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

48%

895-955 (1850)

r2d2v2

Xipto Esports

Invested

$599.99

Value

$454.05

PnL

-$145.94

Record

55%

321-267 (588)

PourpelNourpel

Xipto Esports

Invested

$309.29

Value

$386.82

PnL

+$77.54

Record

51%

706-670 (1376)

maytopmay

Xipto Esports

Invested

$327.9

Value

$377.32

PnL

+$49.42

Record

60%

336-227 (563)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$328.03

Value

$366.94

PnL

+$38.91

Record

64%

131-74 (205)

BackTestEoCaraio

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3,513.26

Value

$346.43

PnL

-$54.75

Record

61%

660-425 (1085)

calculate10

Xipto Esports

Invested

$583.89

Value

$244.01

PnL

+$88.88

Record

54%

1396-1199 (2595)

38791873984189

Xipto Esports

Invested

$125.66

Value

$127.22

PnL

+$6.84

Record

48%

72180-77921 (150101)

madar78

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,423.84

Value

$116.1

PnL

+$52.86

Record

67%

87-42 (129)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$261.86

Value

$104.59

PnL

-$157.27

Record

50%

24127-24236 (48363)

lryyy

Xipto Esports

Invested

$96.18

Value

$103.34

PnL

+$7.16

Record

48%

40309-43267 (83576)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$10.17

Value

$8.74

PnL

-$1.43

Record

33%

1272-2598 (3870)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$3.78

Record

32%

21943-45829 (67772)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.