Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (59%) · Xipto Esports at 87¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 13

Xipto Esports87¢Nemiga Gaming13¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 59%

Total Value

$49.4K

Combined PnL

$7.8K

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 86.5¢

+43% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports87%

Nemiga Gaming14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports10 traders

Total Value$41.1K

Total Shares47,425

Combined PnL+$11.9K

Nemiga Gaming7 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares31,723

Combined PnL$-4.1K

Xipto Esports — 59%Nemiga Gaming — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrXipto Esports 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Xipto Esports 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Xipto Esportsavg 60.2¢	$21.8K	$31.3K	+$9.5K	46% 453-523 (976)
RA RandomVibecoder	Xipto Esportsavg 63.4¢	$5.6K	$7.6K	+$2.0K	48% 517-566 (1083)
CyberScore.liveCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 36.9¢	$5.0K	$4.2K	-$803.13	52% 29-27 (56)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 40¢	$3.4K	$2.6K	-$765	14% 12-75 (87)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 41¢	$3.0K	$972.32	$-2.0K	57% 534-404 (938)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Xipto Esportsavg 62¢	$688.53	$708.87	+$21.57	56% 3915-3078 (6993)
NO NotJump	Xipto Esportsavg 50.1¢	$1.2K	$454.38	+$54.34	55% 499-416 (915)
CC ccllar	Xipto Esportsavg 58¢	$234.9	$350.33	+$115.42	41% 32-46 (78)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	Xipto Esportsavg 57¢	$215.21	$326.59	+$111.38	50% 38-38 (76)
OM omnibus-076daa	Xipto Esportsavg 57.7¢	$317.11	$290.95	-$9.47	41% 293-414 (707)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 42¢	$307.99	$227.33	-$80.66	55% 55-45 (100)
DO DotaBotRebornCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 37.9¢	$525.92	$187.12	-$338.8	66% 41-21 (62)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Xipto Esportsavg 80¢	$286.71	$59.1	+$3.33	14% 35-210 (245)
maytopmayCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 44¢	$156.41	$47.99	-$108.42	18% 45-203 (248)
38 38791873984189<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 60.5¢	$15.41	$17.57	+$2.16	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
poshposh<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 60¢	$8.75	$10.06	+$1.31	48% 590-645 (1235)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 32¢	$10	$2.65	+$0.71	40% 3331-4967 (8298)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Xipto Esports

Invested

$21,770.5

Value

$31.3K

PnL

+$9.5K

Record

46%

453-523 (976)

RandomVibecoder

Xipto Esports

Invested

$5,576.71

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

48%

517-566 (1083)

CyberScore.liveCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$4,999.93

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$803.13

Record

52%

29-27 (56)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$3,399.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$765

Record

14%

12-75 (87)

Sisyphus-CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$2,952.97

Value

$972.32

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

57%

534-404 (938)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Xipto Esports

Invested

$688.53

Value

$708.87

PnL

+$21.57

Record

56%

3915-3078 (6993)

NotJump

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,235.38

Value

$454.38

PnL

+$54.34

Record

55%

499-416 (915)

ccllar

Xipto Esports

Invested

$234.9

Value

$350.33

PnL

+$115.42

Record

41%

32-46 (78)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

Xipto Esports

Invested

$215.21

Value

$326.59

PnL

+$111.38

Record

50%

38-38 (76)

omnibus-076daa

Xipto Esports

Invested

$317.11

Value

$290.95

PnL

-$9.47

Record

41%

293-414 (707)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$307.99

Value

$227.33

PnL

-$80.66

Record

55%

55-45 (100)

DotaBotRebornCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$525.92

Value

$187.12

PnL

-$338.8

Record

66%

41-21 (62)

TommyLeePeeca

Xipto Esports

Invested

$286.71

Value

$59.1

PnL

+$3.33

Record

14%

35-210 (245)

maytopmayCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$156.41

Value

$47.99

PnL

-$108.42

Record

18%

45-203 (248)

38791873984189<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$15.41

Value

$17.57

PnL

+$2.16

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

poshposh<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$8.75

Value

$10.06

PnL

+$1.31

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$10

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.71

Record

40%

3331-4967 (8298)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrXipto Esports 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Xipto Esports 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.