Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Mena Warriors (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Decider
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (75%) · Xipto Esports at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
Xipto Esports
4
Xipto Esports 75%
$1.8K
-$15.74
52.2¢ → 51¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralXipto Esports at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | Xipto Esportsavg 52.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$34.55 | 47% 67-76 (143) |
BE BeastsCTR | Mena Warriorsavg 46.1¢ | $318.03 | $337.83 | +$19.81 | — 1-8 (9) |
FL Flaznorp | Xipto Esportsavg 51¢ | $335.61 | $335.61 | +$0 | 50% 1407-1409 (2816) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Xipto Esportsavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $2.55 | -$1 | 48% 420-450 (870) |
Invested
$1,176.12
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$34.55
Record
47%
67-76 (143)
Invested
$318.03
Value
$337.83
PnL
+$19.81
Record
—
1-8 (9)
Invested
$335.61
Value
$335.61
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1407-1409 (2816)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$1
Record
48%
420-450 (870)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.