Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Xipto Esports, while the market favors HULIGANI (95%). 6 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner

6 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (29%) · Xipto Esports at 5.5¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 9

Xipto Esports6¢HULIGANI94¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.6K

Combined PnL

$-17.2K

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 5.5¢

-89% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidXipto Esports at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

6 of 21 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors HULIGANI 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports6%

HULIGANI95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI15 traders

Total Value$34.6K

Total Shares37,647

Combined PnL+$13.5K

Xipto Esports6 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares73,620

Combined PnL$-30.7K

HULIGANI — 71%Xipto Esports — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Medo3D	HULIGANIavg 41.2¢	$5.0K	$11.5K	+$6.4K	41% 198-289 (487)
RA RandomVibecoder	HULIGANIavg 53.7¢	$4.5K	$7.9K	+$3.4K	48% 895-955 (1850)
Tolkonevminus2	HULIGANIavg 62.1¢	$2.9K	$3.5K	+$1.1K	61% 129-82 (211)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	HULIGANIavg 69.7¢	$2.3K	$3.0K	+$772.13	64% 131-74 (205)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	HULIGANIavg 56.6¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$147.34	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 62.7¢	$14.7K	$2.9K	$-11.8K	55% 850-704 (1554)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	HULIGANIavg 40.1¢	$1.3K	$2.7K	+$1.4K	49% 583-595 (1178)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 38¢	$8.7K	$2.4K	$-6.3K	45% 86-105 (191)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 53.5¢	$11.9K	$1.2K	$-10.7K	59% 1036-727 (1763)
CR Crazyboy77ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 33¢	$659.98	$999.97	+$339.99	53% 223-197 (420)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 33¢	$329.98	$534.97	+$204.99
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 33¢	$330	$465	+$135
TO TommyLeePeeca	HULIGANIavg 56.1¢	$891.25	$894.04	+$2.79	54% 1348-1159 (2507)
OM omnibus-076daa	HULIGANIavg 87.1¢	$666.7	$704.87	+$38.17	50% 24122-24229 (48351)
R2 r2d2v2CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 57.8¢	$652.44	$525.1	-$127.34	55% 321-267 (588)
VV VVVSSP	HULIGANIavg 51¢	$497.89	$522.7	+$24.8	0% 0-44 (44)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 60.3¢	$466.35	$451.33	-$15.01	51% 706-670 (1376)
maytopmayCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 65.4¢	$2.2K	$429.03	$-1.8K	60% 336-227 (563)
PA pauleta23	HULIGANIavg 69.8¢	$250.7	$339.29	+$88.59	65% 25734-13843 (39577)
FE ferrariChampions2026	HULIGANIavg 41.3¢	$232.91	$335.89	+$102.98	46% 33770-39445 (73215)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	HULIGANIavg 39.7¢	$41.23	$90.98	+$49.75	55% 3930-3278 (7208)
LR lryyy<$100	HULIGANIavg 62.7¢	$48.29	$72	+$23.71	48% 40305-43263 (83568)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	HULIGANIavg 67.4¢	$70.86	$56.29	-$14.57	59% 7402-5123 (12525)
SE sentrio<$100	HULIGANIavg 51¢	$11.06	$11.7	+$0.65	51% 28817-28169 (56986)

Medo3D

HULIGANI

Invested

$5,049.05

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$6.4K

Record

41%

198-289 (487)

RandomVibecoder

HULIGANI

Invested

$4,524.37

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

48%

895-955 (1850)

Tolkonevminus2

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,866.07

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

61%

129-82 (211)

UNIVERSEMVP

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,264.62

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$772.13

Record

64%

131-74 (205)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,802.03

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$147.34

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

Sisyphus-CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$14,720.9

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-11.8K

Record

55%

850-704 (1554)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,341.22

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

49%

583-595 (1178)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$8,696.48

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-6.3K

Record

45%

86-105 (191)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$11,875.34

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-10.7K

Record

59%

1036-727 (1763)

Crazyboy77ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$659.98

Value

$999.97

PnL

+$339.99

Record

53%

223-197 (420)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$329.9833¢+$204.99

Xipto Esports$33033¢+$135

TommyLeePeeca

HULIGANI

Invested

$891.25

Value

$894.04

PnL

+$2.79

Record

54%

1348-1159 (2507)

omnibus-076daa

HULIGANI

Invested

$666.7

Value

$704.87

PnL

+$38.17

Record

50%

24122-24229 (48351)

r2d2v2CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$652.44

Value

$525.1

PnL

-$127.34

Record

55%

321-267 (588)

VVVSSP

HULIGANI

Invested

$497.89

Value

$522.7

PnL

+$24.8

Record

0-44 (44)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$466.35

Value

$451.33

PnL

-$15.01

Record

51%

706-670 (1376)

maytopmayCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,246.22

Value

$429.03

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

60%

336-227 (563)

pauleta23

HULIGANI

Invested

$250.7

Value

$339.29

PnL

+$88.59

Record

65%

25734-13843 (39577)

ferrariChampions2026

HULIGANI

Invested

$232.91

Value

$335.89

PnL

+$102.98

Record

46%

33770-39445 (73215)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$41.23

Value

$90.98

PnL

+$49.75

Record

55%

3930-3278 (7208)

lryyy<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$48.29

Value

$72

PnL

+$23.71

Record

48%

40305-43263 (83568)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$70.86

Value

$56.29

PnL

-$14.57

Record

59%

7402-5123 (12525)

sentrio<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$11.06

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.65

Record

51%

28817-28169 (56986)

Research grade

AvoidXipto Esports at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

6 of 21 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors HULIGANI 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.