Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Astra Invicta - Game 1 Winner

39 of 68 top Polymarket traders hold Astra Invicta (57%) · Astra Invicta at 100¢ · $329K held · ends Oct 28

Team Yandex<1¢Astra Invicta>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Astra Invicta

Consensus Traders

Astra Invicta 57%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$329.2K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

42.5¢ → 100¢

+135% since entry · 39 traders

Research grade

NeutralAstra Invicta at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Astra Invicta

39 of 68 top traders (57%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Yandex0%

Astra Invicta100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Yandex29 traders

Total Value$85.5K

Total Shares150,543

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Astra Invicta39 traders

Total Value$149.3K

Total Shares259,126

Combined PnL-$529.91

Team Yandex — 43%Astra Invicta — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhctARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 51.2¢	$40.2K	$41.4K	+$1.1K	54% 451-390 (841)
└ Astra Invicta leg	Astra Invictaavg 45.6¢	$18.5K	$23.8K	+$5.2K
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 51.2¢	$21.7K	$17.6K	$-4.1K
GX gxxyyARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 48.8¢	$31.8K	$21.4K	$-10.4K	69% 477-215 (692)
└ Astra Invicta leg	Astra Invictaavg 86.1¢	$15.7K	$14.3K	$-1.4K
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 48.8¢	$16.1K	$7.1K	$-9.0K
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Team Yandexavg 73.3¢	$24.1K	$20.7K	$-3.4K	58% 882-644 (1526)
errormargin3	Astra Invictaavg 82.8¢	$21.7K	$20.3K	$-1.4K	55% 237-195 (432)
ST StakesForFun	Astra Invictaavg 49.6¢	$34.7K	$16.8K	+$2.1K	63% 368-215 (583)
QW qwerqr1251251	Astra Invictaavg 72.3¢	$21.0K	$16.3K	$-4.7K	70% 288-126 (414)
Medo3DARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 37.4¢	$9.4K	$15.9K	+$6.6K	39% 156-243 (399)
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 37.4¢	$8.2K	$8.1K	-$97.32
└ Astra Invicta leg	Astra Invictaavg 9.3¢	$1.2K	$7.8K	+$6.7K
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR	Astra Invictaavg 37.8¢	$17.8K	$14.5K	+$996.92	57% 153-116 (269)
LI LinkE5CTR	Team Yandexavg 74.2¢	$11.8K	$13.0K	+$1.2K	48% 694-765 (1459)
OR origatoCTR	Team Yandexavg 75.2¢	$10.5K	$11.5K	+$943.5	47% 21-24 (45)
CyberScore.live	Astra Invictaavg 24.7¢	$9.9K	$11.1K	+$6.2K	46% 398-465 (863)
UN UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 41.4¢	$31.0K	$9.4K	$-3.9K	68% 60-28 (88)
└ Astra Invicta leg	Astra Invictaavg 46¢	$3.6K	$6.8K	+$1.3K
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 41.4¢	$7.8K	$2.6K	$-5.2K
cat3xcat3x	Astra Invictaavg 49.3¢	$11.2K	$9.1K	+$1.5K	56% 320-250 (570)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Team Yandexavg 72.3¢	$8.1K	$8.9K	+$781.22	48% 787-837 (1624)
GE GeorgeRe	Astra Invictaavg 31.4¢	$2.9K	$7.4K	+$6.3K	54% 1066-924 (1990)
EX Excentrico	Astra Invictaavg 76.9¢	$10.8K	$7.3K	$-3.5K	64% 291-167 (458)
PI pipipi150	Astra Invictaavg 53.1¢	$6.3K	$7.2K	+$908	65% 1712-913 (2625)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952CTR	Team Yandexavg 90.4¢	$7.2K	$7.1K	-$68.4	85% 582-105 (687)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620	Astra Invictaavg 28.3¢	$2.7K	$6.4K	+$3.9K	55% 38-31 (69)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Team Yandexavg 50.7¢	$9.9K	$5.6K	-$954.32	48% 597-634 (1231)
minjiCTR	Team Yandexavg 78.7¢	$4.1K	$4.5K	+$392.75	52% 1779-1629 (3408)
Sunshine.Smile	Astra Invictaavg 30.8¢	$5.4K	$3.9K	$-1.5K	58% 1851-1329 (3180)
OtecBednosti	Astra Invictaavg 68¢	$4.4K	$3.3K	$-1.1K	51% 135-129 (264)
MA madar78CTR	Team Yandexavg 20.4¢	$24.3K	$2.5K	+$12.3K	70% 50-21 (71)
SI Sisyphus-	Astra Invictaavg 27.5¢	$3.7K	$2.4K	$-1.3K	57% 711-546 (1257)

pnhctARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$40,218.99

Value

$41.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

451-390 (841)

Both legs:

Astra Invicta$18,521.545.6¢+$5.2K

Team Yandex$21,697.4951.2¢$-4.1K

gxxyyARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$31,765.4

Value

$21.4K

PnL

$-10.4K

Record

69%

477-215 (692)

Both legs:

Astra Invicta$15,658.8486.1¢$-1.4K

Team Yandex$16,106.5548.8¢$-9.0K

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$24,103.79

Value

$20.7K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

58%

882-644 (1526)

errormargin3

Astra Invicta

Invested

$21,695.56

Value

$20.3K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

55%

237-195 (432)

StakesForFun

Astra Invicta

Invested

$34,733.74

Value

$16.8K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

63%

368-215 (583)

qwerqr1251251

Astra Invicta

Invested

$21,040.07

Value

$16.3K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

70%

288-126 (414)

Medo3DARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$9,367.08

Value

$15.9K

PnL

+$6.6K

Record

39%

156-243 (399)

Both legs:

Team Yandex$8,213.4437.4¢-$97.32

Astra Invicta$1,153.649.3¢+$6.7K

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$17,848.73

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$996.92

Record

57%

153-116 (269)

LinkE5CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$11,761.18

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

48%

694-765 (1459)

origatoCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$10,515.98

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$943.5

Record

47%

21-24 (45)

CyberScore.live

Astra Invicta

Invested

$9,905.31

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

46%

398-465 (863)

UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$31,044.5

Value

$9.4K

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

68%

60-28 (88)

Both legs:

Astra Invicta$3,637.3346¢+$1.3K

Team Yandex$7,754.7441.4¢$-5.2K

cat3xcat3x

Astra Invicta

Invested

$11,183.13

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

56%

320-250 (570)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$8,097.25

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$781.22

Record

48%

787-837 (1624)

GeorgeRe

Astra Invicta

Invested

$2,912.39

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

54%

1066-924 (1990)

Excentrico

Astra Invicta

Invested

$10,771.08

Value

$7.3K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

64%

291-167 (458)

pipipi150

Astra Invicta

Invested

$6,283.6

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$908

Record

65%

1712-913 (2625)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$7,184.95

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$68.4

Record

85%

582-105 (687)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620

Astra Invicta

Invested

$2,692.21

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

55%

38-31 (69)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$9,868.2

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$954.32

Record

48%

597-634 (1231)

minjiCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$4,139.51

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$392.75

Record

52%

1779-1629 (3408)

Sunshine.Smile

Astra Invicta

Invested

$5,380.46

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

58%

1851-1329 (3180)

OtecBednosti

Astra Invicta

Invested

$4,399.99

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

135-129 (264)

madar78CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$24,343.11

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$12.3K

Record

70%

50-21 (71)

Sisyphus-

Astra Invicta

Invested

$3,717

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

57%

711-546 (1257)

Research grade

NeutralAstra Invicta at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Astra Invicta

39 of 68 top traders (57%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Astra Invicta wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.