Dota 2: Time to Sleep vs CyberHero (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group B
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (67%) · CyberHero at 51¢ · $219 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
CyberHero
6
CyberHero 67%
$219
-$15.71
64.8¢ → 51¢
-21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCyberHero at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifoo | CyberHeroavg 68.4¢ | $122.94 | $95.32 | -$27.62 | 62% 1324-796 (2120) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | CyberHeroavg 58.9¢ | $49.55 | $46.35 | -$0.87 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100 | Time to Sleepavg 47¢ | $27.7 | $27.7 | -$0 | 15% 143-839 (982) |
SE sentrio<$100 | CyberHeroavg 59.3¢ | $19.85 | $20.6 | +$0.75 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Time to Sleepavg 11¢ | $4.19 | $17.9 | +$13.71 | 45% 116-143 (259) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | CyberHeroavg 64.1¢ | $17.31 | $11.13 | -$1.68 | 48% 668-712 (1380) |
Invested
$122.94
Value
$95.32
PnL
-$27.62
Record
62%
1324-796 (2120)
Invested
$49.55
Value
$46.35
PnL
-$0.87
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Invested
$27.7
Value
$27.7
PnL
-$0
Record
15%
143-839 (982)
Invested
$19.85
Value
$20.6
PnL
+$0.75
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$4.19
Value
$17.9
PnL
+$13.71
Record
45%
116-143 (259)
Invested
$17.31
Value
$11.13
PnL
-$1.68
Record
48%
668-712 (1380)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.