Dota 2: Time to Sleep vs Team Allied - Game 2 Winner

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Team Allied (63%) · Team Allied at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 10

Time to Sleep<1¢Team Allied>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Allied

Consensus Traders

Team Allied 63%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$82.06

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Allied at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Allied

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Time to Sleep0%

Team Allied100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Allied5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,981

Combined PnL+$406.95

Time to Sleep3 traders

Total Value$124.21

Total Shares3,658

Combined PnL-$489.02

Team Allied — 63%Time to Sleep — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	Team Alliedavg 85.1¢	$3.5K	$3.9K	+$429.19	57% 503-385 (888)
PO PourpelNourpel	Team Alliedavg 86¢	$307.77	$255.88	-$51.89	53% 17-15 (32)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Team Alliedavg 85¢	$160	$180.71	+$20.71	10% 39-369 (408)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Team Alliedavg 84.4¢	$171.6	$169.29	-$2.31	7% 14-200 (214)
maytopmay	Team Alliedavg 87.5¢	$123.2	$134.45	+$11.25	7% 15-187 (202)
Medo3DCTR	Time to Sleepavg 17.8¢	$434.95	$61.04	-$373.92	3% 6-200 (206)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Time to Sleepavg 14.7¢	$164.42	$50.31	-$114.11	48% 473-515 (988)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Time to Sleepavg 14¢	$13.86	$12.87	-$0.99	50% 128-129 (257)

Sisyphus-

Team Allied

Invested

$3,500.34

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$429.19

Record

57%

503-385 (888)

PourpelNourpel

Team Allied

Invested

$307.77

Value

$255.88

PnL

-$51.89

Record

53%

17-15 (32)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Team Allied

Invested

$160

Value

$180.71

PnL

+$20.71

Record

10%

39-369 (408)

TommyLeePeeca

Team Allied

Invested

$171.6

Value

$169.29

PnL

-$2.31

Record

14-200 (214)

maytopmay

Team Allied

Invested

$123.2

Value

$134.45

PnL

+$11.25

Record

15-187 (202)

Medo3DCTR

Time to Sleep

Invested

$434.95

Value

$61.04

PnL

-$373.92

Record

6-200 (206)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Time to Sleep

Invested

$164.42

Value

$50.31

PnL

-$114.11

Record

48%

473-515 (988)

lryyyCTR<$100

Time to Sleep

Invested

$13.86

Value

$12.87

PnL

-$0.99

Record

50%

128-129 (257)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Allied at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Team Allied

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Allied wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.