Dota 2: Time to Sleep vs Team Allied - Game 1 Winner
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Team Allied (55%) · Team Allied at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Team Allied
11
Team Allied 55%
$4.9K
$299.57
68.9¢ → 100¢
+45% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Allied at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Medo3D | Team Alliedavg 60¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$81.17 | 3% 6-200 (206) |
RA RandomVibecoder | Team Alliedavg 62.3¢ | $650.71 | $1.0K | +$393.99 | 48% 473-515 (988) |
 handandfacetatto | Team Alliedavg 99.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$0.64 | 100% 28-0 (28) |
SI Sisyphus-CTR | Time to Sleepavg 43.2¢ | $725.4 | $546 | -$179.4 | 57% 503-385 (888) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Team Alliedavg 65.8¢ | $165.91 | $252.11 | +$86.2 | 34% 162-314 (476) |
PO PourpelNourpelCTR | Time to Sleepavg 44¢ | $306.75 | $226.58 | -$80.17 | 53% 17-15 (32) |
TO TommyLeePeeca | Team Alliedavg 75.6¢ | $124.18 | $120.24 | -$3.94 | 7% 14-200 (214) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Time to Sleepavg 15¢ | $30.15 | $30.15 | +$0 | 49% 65-68 (133) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Team Alliedavg 57¢ | $3.27 | $4.16 | +$0.89 | 40% 3002-4411 (7413) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Time to Sleepavg 5¢ | $0.25 | $0.48 | +$0.22 | 50% 127-128 (255) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Time to Sleepavg 0.1¢ | $0.06 | $0.03 | -$0.03 | 1% 1-129 (130) |
Medo3DInvested
$1,623.33
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$81.17
Record
3%
6-200 (206)
Invested
$650.71
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$393.99
Record
48%
473-515 (988)
handandfacetattoInvested
$1,001.51
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$0.64
Record
100%
28-0 (28)
Invested
$725.4
Value
$546
PnL
-$179.4
Record
57%
503-385 (888)
Invested
$165.91
Value
$252.11
PnL
+$86.2
Record
34%
162-314 (476)
Invested
$306.75
Value
$226.58
PnL
-$80.17
Record
53%
17-15 (32)
Invested
$124.18
Value
$120.24
PnL
-$3.94
Record
7%
14-200 (214)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$30.15
Value
$30.15
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
65-68 (133)
Invested
$3.27
Value
$4.16
PnL
+$0.89
Record
40%
3002-4411 (7413)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.48
PnL
+$0.22
Record
50%
127-128 (255)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.03
Record
1%
1-129 (130)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Medo3D
Team Allied — $1.7K
RandomVibecoder
Team Allied — $1.0K
handandfacetatto
Team Allied — $1.0K
Sisyphus-
CTRTime to Sleep — $546
omnibus-076daa
Team Allied — $252.11
PourpelNourpel
CTRTime to Sleep — $226.58
TommyLeePeeca
Team Allied — $120.24
alpheclabs2
CTRTime to Sleep — $30.15
xtxpleasecallme
Team Allied — $4.16
lryyy
CTRTime to Sleep — $0.48