Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner

32 of 65 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (49%) · PARIVISION at 80¢ · $331K held · ends Oct 30

Team Spirit20¢PARIVISION80¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 49%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$331.4K

Combined PnL

$-27.8K

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 80¢

+2% since entry · 32 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

32 of 65 top traders (49%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit20%

PARIVISION80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION32 traders

Total Value$263.5K

Total Shares314,923

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Team Spirit33 traders

Total Value$44.7K

Total Shares223,060

Combined PnL$-30.3K

PARIVISION — 49%Team Spirit — 51%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

38 traders

Top 2 hold 29%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

53% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 29% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Spirit 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpPARIVISION 90% · 21

Aligned

ctrTeam Spirit 52% · 54

Diverging

Hand-pickedPARIVISION 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000PARIVISION 53% · 72

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
c4acap	PARIVISIONavg 99.9¢	$75.1K	$60.2K	$-15.0K	98% 2408-40 (2448)
PN pnhct	PARIVISIONavg 74.2¢	$43.9K	$44.1K	+$167.35	54% 494-424 (918)
SI Sisyphus-	PARIVISIONavg 63.3¢	$26.5K	$33.5K	+$5.5K	57% 723-552 (1275)
CO ColdBlooded	PARIVISIONavg 80¢	$20.0K	$20.0K	-$869.51	72% 140-55 (195)
MA madar78	PARIVISIONavg 87.3¢	$36.1K	$15.2K	-$394.61	69% 62-28 (90)
YA yadens	PARIVISIONavg 79.4¢	$14.0K	$14.3K	+$376.39	70% 156-67 (223)
GE GeorgeRe	PARIVISIONavg 59.5¢	$11.1K	$13.9K	+$3.9K	54% 1078-933 (2011)
R2 r2d2v2	PARIVISIONavg 64¢	$9.6K	$12.0K	+$2.4K	54% 294-246 (540)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Team Spiritavg 39¢	$19.6K	$10.0K	$-15.8K	58% 897-650 (1547)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872	PARIVISIONavg 65¢	$6.5K	$8.0K	+$1.5K	43% 335-450 (785)
SkritopoolniyARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 57¢	$4.9K	$7.6K	+$1.4K	48% 604-645 (1249)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 57¢	$3.8K	$5.3K	+$2.2K
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 16.3¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	-$852.25
maytopmay	PARIVISIONavg 65.7¢	$5.5K	$6.7K	+$1.2K	61% 282-181 (463)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 60.1¢	$5.4K	$6.6K	+$993.82	49% 801-846 (1647)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 60.1¢	$3.4K	$4.5K	+$948.02
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 19.6¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$45.81
cat3xcat3x	PARIVISIONavg 63¢	$4.4K	$5.6K	+$1.2K	56% 329-260 (589)
GO GooGooGaga1	PARIVISIONavg 83.8¢	$6.4K	$5.5K	-$505.72	78% 38-11 (49)
BU Bunnycat	PARIVISIONavg 68.2¢	$4.6K	$5.4K	+$796.62	68% 81-38 (119)
EX Excentrico	PARIVISIONavg 80.8¢	$4.3K	$5.1K	+$812.18	63% 302-176 (478)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	Team Spiritavg 33.2¢	$7.6K	$4.6K	$-3.0K	49% 1156-1206 (2362)
CORGIICTR	Team Spiritavg 36¢	$7.9K	$4.4K	$-2.7K	41% 391-563 (954)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 41.4¢	$5.4K	$4.1K	$-1.4K	49% 18975-19389 (38364)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 71.6¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$271.98
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 41.4¢	$3.1K	$1.5K	$-1.6K
NO notailnotailCTR	Team Spiritavg 27.4¢	$4.1K	$3.0K	$-1.1K	33% 50-100 (150)
BA babyboy9CTR	Team Spiritavg 12.4¢	$15.5K	$3.0K	+$3.0K	54% 349-293 (642)
Up0nly	PARIVISIONavg 75.7¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	+$248.54	68% 973-465 (1438)
errormargin3	PARIVISIONavg 81.7¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$59.06	53% 240-209 (449)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Team Spiritavg 32.8¢	$3.0K	$2.1K	-$956.27	58% 1860-1337 (3197)

c4acap

PARIVISION

Invested

$75,124.46

Value

$60.2K

PnL

$-15.0K

Record

98%

2408-40 (2448)

pnhct

PARIVISION

Invested

$43,922.81

Value

$44.1K

PnL

+$167.35

Record

54%

494-424 (918)

Sisyphus-

PARIVISION

Invested

$26,491.58

Value

$33.5K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

57%

723-552 (1275)

ColdBlooded

PARIVISION

Invested

$19,994.74

Value

$20.0K

PnL

-$869.51

Record

72%

140-55 (195)

madar78

PARIVISION

Invested

$36,123.2

Value

$15.2K

PnL

-$394.61

Record

69%

62-28 (90)

yadens

PARIVISION

Invested

$13,958.64

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$376.39

Record

70%

156-67 (223)

GeorgeRe

PARIVISION

Invested

$11,116.15

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

54%

1078-933 (2011)

r2d2v2

PARIVISION

Invested

$9,594.22

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

54%

294-246 (540)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$19,556.36

Value

$10.0K

PnL

$-15.8K

Record

58%

897-650 (1547)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872

PARIVISION

Invested

$6,499.97

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

43%

335-450 (785)

SkritopoolniyARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,941.25

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

48%

604-645 (1249)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$3,762.4757¢+$2.2K

Team Spirit$1,904.8916.3¢-$852.25

maytopmay

PARIVISION

Invested

$5,488.46

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

61%

282-181 (463)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$5,400.5

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$993.82

Record

49%

801-846 (1647)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$3,371.9260.1¢+$948.02

Team Spirit$2,028.5819.6¢+$45.81

cat3xcat3x

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,414.12

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

56%

329-260 (589)

GooGooGaga1

PARIVISION

Invested

$6,423.15

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$505.72

Record

78%

38-11 (49)

Bunnycat

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,603.95

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$796.62

Record

68%

81-38 (119)

Excentrico

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,309.83

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$812.18

Record

63%

302-176 (478)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,618.02

Value

$4.6K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

49%

1156-1206 (2362)

CORGIICTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,919.98

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

41%

391-563 (954)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,443.86

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

49%

18975-19389 (38364)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$2,303.0371.6¢+$271.98

Team Spirit$3,140.8341.4¢$-1.6K

notailnotailCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,077.28

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

33%

50-100 (150)

babyboy9CTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$15,463.77

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

54%

349-293 (642)

Up0nly

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,926.28

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$248.54

Record

68%

973-465 (1438)

errormargin3

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,216.92

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$59.06

Record

53%

240-209 (449)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,016.27

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$956.27

Record

58%

1860-1337 (3197)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

32 of 65 top traders (49%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

38 traders

Top 2 hold 29%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

53% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 29% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Spirit 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpPARIVISION 90% · 21

Aligned

ctrTeam Spirit 52% · 54

Diverging

Hand-pickedPARIVISION 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000PARIVISION 53% · 72

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.