Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 2 Winner

26 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold OG (49%) · OG at 100¢ · $299K held · ends Oct 28

Team Spirit<1¢OG>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

OG 49%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$298.9K

Combined PnL

$24.7K

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 100¢

+98% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

NeutralOG at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

26 of 53 top traders (49%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit0%

OG100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

OG26 traders

Total Value$195.1K

Total Shares301,502

Combined PnL+$28.1K

Team Spirit27 traders

Total Value$73.2K

Total Shares150,572

Combined PnL$-3.4K

OG — 49%Team Spirit — 51%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	OGavg 50.8¢	$33.9K	$34.5K	+$587.79	54% 457-395 (852)
YA yadens	OGavg 97¢	$30.0K	$25.2K	+$1.1K	70% 146-62 (208)
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRARB<$100	OGavg 65.9¢	$24.7K	$22.0K	$-2.7K	57% 154-118 (272)
└ OG leg	OGavg 65.9¢	$16.0K	$15.7K	-$344.99
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 48.9¢	$8.6K	$6.3K	$-2.4K
Medo3D	OGavg 27.9¢	$16.6K	$17.8K	+$1.2K	39% 158-245 (403)
CyberScore.live	OGavg 52.6¢	$13.2K	$15.6K	+$2.5K	46% 399-466 (865)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Team Spiritavg 67.8¢	$23.0K	$15.3K	$-7.7K	58% 884-645 (1529)
MA madar78	OGavg 73.9¢	$53.5K	$13.6K	+$5.0K	70% 52-22 (74)
minji	OGavg 69¢	$11.1K	$11.4K	+$344.44	52% 1781-1630 (3411)
cat3xcat3x	OGavg 57.2¢	$17.1K	$10.2K	+$862.36	56% 321-252 (573)
RA RandomVibecoder	OGavg 37.4¢	$5.3K	$8.7K	+$3.4K	48% 788-839 (1627)
errormargin3CTR	Team Spiritavg 9.2¢	$1.9K	$8.6K	+$7.7K	54% 237-198 (435)
Skritopoolniy	OGavg 27.7¢	$5.6K	$8.5K	+$2.9K	48% 598-636 (1234)
GE GeorgeRe	OGavg 24.1¢	$3.0K	$8.4K	+$8.7K	54% 1068-925 (1993)
0xheavy888	OGavg 59.6¢	$8.4K	$8.1K	-$230.73	56% 6915-5530 (12445)
OR origatoCTR	Team Spiritavg 76.2¢	$8.2K	$8.0K	-$188.38	45% 21-26 (47)
LI LinkE5CTR	Team Spiritavg 73.2¢	$7.0K	$7.1K	+$31.96	48% 695-767 (1462)
GX gxxyyCTR	Team Spiritavg 40.9¢	$6.5K	$6.8K	+$349.63	69% 479-216 (695)
QW qwerqr1251251	OGavg 57.9¢	$8.9K	$6.5K	+$3.4K	69% 289-128 (417)
DamwonChampions2026	OGavg 59.6¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$116.51	53% 2043-1807 (3850)
EX Excentrico	OGavg 75.7¢	$21.0K	$5.1K	$-3.0K	63% 292-169 (461)
Up0nly	OGavg 72¢	$5.5K	$4.0K	+$1.2K	68% 965-453 (1418)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Team Spiritavg 74.5¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$0.12	50% 536-533 (1069)
1R 1rerrrCTR	Team Spiritavg 73.7¢	$4.6K	$3.7K	+$17.79	51% 1291-1265 (2556)
99 999999666544332578855667788CTR	Team Spiritavg 75¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$40	57% 628-468 (1096)
NA natorgatorontopCTR	Team Spiritavg 74¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$20	60% 267-176 (443)

pnhct

Invested

$33,893.94

Value

$34.5K

PnL

+$587.79

Record

54%

457-395 (852)

yadens

Invested

$30,000

Value

$25.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

70%

146-62 (208)

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRARB<$100

Invested

$24,664.07

Value

$22.0K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

57%

154-118 (272)

Both legs:

OG$16,01765.9¢-$344.99

Team Spirit$8,647.0748.9¢$-2.4K

Medo3D

Invested

$16,602.66

Value

$17.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

39%

158-245 (403)

CyberScore.live

Invested

$13,158.73

Value

$15.6K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

46%

399-466 (865)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$23,000

Value

$15.3K

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

58%

884-645 (1529)

madar78

Invested

$53,524.26

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

70%

52-22 (74)

minji

Invested

$11,066.02

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$344.44

Record

52%

1781-1630 (3411)

cat3xcat3x

Invested

$17,079.9

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$862.36

Record

56%

321-252 (573)

RandomVibecoder

Invested

$5,338.48

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

48%

788-839 (1627)

errormargin3CTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,867.63

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$7.7K

Record

54%

237-198 (435)

Skritopoolniy

Invested

$5,591.4

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

48%

598-636 (1234)

GeorgeRe

Invested

$2,957.38

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$8.7K

Record

54%

1068-925 (1993)

0xheavy888

Invested

$8,358.61

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$230.73

Record

56%

6915-5530 (12445)

origatoCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,215.75

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$188.38

Record

45%

21-26 (47)

LinkE5CTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,049.02

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$31.96

Record

48%

695-767 (1462)

gxxyyCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,464.59

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$349.63

Record

69%

479-216 (695)

qwerqr1251251

Invested

$8,948.87

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

69%

289-128 (417)

DamwonChampions2026

Invested

$6,046.19

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$116.51

Record

53%

2043-1807 (3850)

Excentrico

Invested

$20,976.25

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

63%

292-169 (461)

Up0nly

Invested

$5,477.86

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

68%

965-453 (1418)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,742.75

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

536-533 (1069)

1rerrrCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,644.58

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$17.79

Record

51%

1291-1265 (2556)

999999666544332578855667788CTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$40

Record

57%

628-468 (1096)

natorgatorontopCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,959.99

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$20

Record

60%

267-176 (443)

Research grade

NeutralOG at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

26 of 53 top traders (49%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that OG wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.