Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

18 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (46%) · Team Spirit at 56¢ · $137K held · ends Oct 30

Team Spirit56¢Team Liquid44¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 46%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$137.1K

Combined PnL

$-3.7K

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 55.5¢

-17% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

18 of 39 top traders (46%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit56%

Team Liquid45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit18 traders

Total Value$58.9K

Total Shares96,562

Combined PnL$-5.6K

Team Liquid21 traders

Total Value$34.3K

Total Shares97,428

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Team Spirit — 46%Team Liquid — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 65.4¢	$28.7K	$21.0K	$-2.4K	68% 78-37 (115)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 65.4¢	$19.5K	$16.5K	$-2.7K
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 41.4¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$315.8
PN pnhctARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 63.8¢	$18.9K	$19.3K	+$384.49	54% 501-429 (930)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 63.8¢	$12.2K	$10.6K	$-1.6K
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 34.5¢	$6.8K	$8.7K	+$2.0K
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Spiritavg 68.5¢	$19.0K	$15.9K	$-3.1K	58% 900-651 (1551)
YA yadens	Team Spiritavg 65.5¢	$8.3K	$8.2K	-$65.47	70% 158-67 (225)
Tokenn	Team Spiritavg 68.1¢	$6.8K	$6.9K	+$135.01	48% 656-710 (1366)
cat3xcat3x	Team Spiritavg 64.4¢	$7.6K	$6.6K	$-1.1K	56% 331-262 (593)
relativesignificanceCTR	Team Liquidavg 28.8¢	$6.3K	$6.4K	+$358	57% 102-78 (180)
BA babyboy9	Team Spiritavg 70.3¢	$6.4K	$5.0K	$-1.3K	54% 352-294 (646)
dodsterbot	Team Spiritavg 72.8¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	+$84	46% 628-731 (1359)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 56.8¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$155.16	49% 803-848 (1651)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 56.8¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$59.51
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 36.2¢	$935.92	$1.2K	+$214.68
SkritopoolniyCTR	Team Liquidavg 35.7¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$407.6	48% 607-646 (1253)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872CTR	Team Liquidavg 42¢	$4.2K	$3.3K	-$899.99	43% 337-450 (787)
Tolkonevminus3CTR	Team Liquidavg 35.7¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$57.72	56% 59-46 (105)
BE Bettong	Team Spiritavg 63¢	$3.4K	$2.8K	-$194.91	55% 336-272 (608)
MA madar78CTR	Team Liquidavg 36.7¢	$10.9K	$2.5K	+$1.2K	70% 66-28 (94)
BU Bunnycat	Team Spiritavg 65¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$0	69% 85-39 (124)
GE GeorgeReCTR	Team Liquidavg 32¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$121.86	54% 1082-933 (2015)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620CTR	Team Liquidavg 31.2¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$124.4	56% 50-40 (90)
TR Trungl	Team Spiritavg 64.7¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$90.14	61% 400-257 (657)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	Team Liquidavg 43.8¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$35.04	54% 2476-2129 (4605)
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRCTR	Team Liquidavg 41.4¢	$2.6K	$1.9K	+$16.9	57% 164-125 (289)
PI pipipi150	Team Spiritavg 61.2¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$122.32	65% 1730-923 (2653)
errormargin3CTR	Team Liquidavg 39.5¢	$4.2K	$1.3K	+$377.05	53% 242-211 (453)
A3 a37932699	Team Spiritavg 57.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$39	54% 396-333 (729)
FK fkALCTR	Team Liquidavg 31.9¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$34.71	63% 2029-1197 (3226)

UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$28,730.46

Value

$21.0K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

68%

78-37 (115)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$19,457.9365.4¢$-2.7K

Team Liquid$4,166.9341.4¢+$315.8

pnhctARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$18,923.25

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$384.49

Record

54%

501-429 (930)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$12,166.4563.8¢$-1.6K

Team Liquid$6,756.834.5¢+$2.0K

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Spirit

Invested

$19,000

Value

$15.9K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

58%

900-651 (1551)

yadens

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,293.34

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$65.47

Record

70%

158-67 (225)

Tokenn

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,814.86

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$135.01

Record

48%

656-710 (1366)

cat3xcat3x

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,618.54

Value

$6.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

56%

331-262 (593)

relativesignificanceCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,324.36

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$358

Record

57%

102-78 (180)

babyboy9

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,355.75

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

352-294 (646)

dodsterbot

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,795.83

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$84

Record

46%

628-731 (1359)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,507.75

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$155.16

Record

49%

803-848 (1651)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$2,571.8356.8¢-$59.51

Team Liquid$935.9236.2¢+$214.68

SkritopoolniyCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,058.56

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$407.6

Record

48%

607-646 (1253)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,199.97

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$899.99

Record

43%

337-450 (787)

Tolkonevminus3CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,094.56

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$57.72

Record

56%

59-46 (105)

Bettong

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,438.05

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$194.91

Record

55%

336-272 (608)

madar78CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$10,925.57

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

70%

66-28 (94)

Bunnycat

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,535

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

85-39 (124)

GeorgeReCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,599.64

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$121.86

Record

54%

1082-933 (2015)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,175.73

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$124.4

Record

56%

50-40 (90)

Trungl

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,092.12

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$90.14

Record

61%

400-257 (657)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,106.08

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$35.04

Record

54%

2476-2129 (4605)

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,593.06

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$16.9

Record

57%

164-125 (289)

pipipi150

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,695

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$122.32

Record

65%

1730-923 (2653)

errormargin3CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,181.83

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$377.05

Record

53%

242-211 (453)

a37932699

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,260

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$39

Record

54%

396-333 (729)

fkALCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,048.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$34.71

Record

63%

2029-1197 (3226)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

18 of 39 top traders (46%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.