Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Froglings - Game 1 Winner
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (60%) · Team Spirit at 90¢ · $234 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Team Spirit
5
Team Spirit 60%
$234.19
$9.39
86.6¢ → 89.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Spirit at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntori | Team Spiritavg 86.7¢ | $190.46 | $190.6 | +$0.14 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Froglingsavg 10¢ | $13.99 | $18.88 | +$4.9 | 44% 31-39 (70) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Froglingsavg 10.5¢ | $17.7 | $10.29 | +$3.46 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Team Spiritavg 85¢ | $22.89 | $8.72 | +$0.65 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Team Spiritavg 85¢ | $5.45 | $5.7 | +$0.25 | 40% 589-893 (1482) |
Invested
$190.46
Value
$190.6
PnL
+$0.14
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
Invested
$13.99
Value
$18.88
PnL
+$4.9
Record
44%
31-39 (70)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$17.7
Value
$10.29
PnL
+$3.46
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$22.89
Value
$8.72
PnL
+$0.65
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$5.7
PnL
+$0.25
Record
40%
589-893 (1482)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.