Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Froglings (BO3) - 1win Essence Group D

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (22%) · Team Spirit at 95¢ · $541 held · ends Nov 14

Team Spirit95¢Froglings5¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 22%

Total Value

$541.24

Combined PnL

$17.72

Smart Money Entry

94¢ → 94.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit95%

Froglings6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit2 traders

Total Value$269.65

Total Shares286

Combined PnL+$0.53

Froglings7 traders

Total Value$271.59

Total Shares4,966

Combined PnL+$17.19

Team Spirit — 22%Froglings — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OJ ojgtubvdt	Team Spiritavg 94¢	$264.47	$265.88	+$1.41	63% 15-9 (24)
alpheclabs2CTR	Froglingsavg 5¢	$135.8	$149.38	+$13.58	46% 219-260 (479)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Froglingsavg 5.1¢	$98.47	$83.92	+$6.74	47% 226-251 (477)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Froglingsavg 5¢	$15	$16.5	+$1.5	53% 1030-921 (1951)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Froglingsavg 6¢	$8.52	$7.1	-$1.42	53% 472-427 (899)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Froglingsavg 7¢	$9.52	$6.8	-$2.72	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
forsenxdCTR<$100	Froglingsavg 5¢	$5.94	$6.54	+$0.59	49% 371-393 (764)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Team Spiritavg 93¢	$4.65	$3.78	-$0.88	40% 589-893 (1482)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Froglingsavg 9¢	$2.43	$1.35	-$1.08	30% 77-180 (257)

ojgtubvdt

Team Spirit

Invested

$264.47

Value

$265.88

PnL

+$1.41

Record

63%

15-9 (24)

alpheclabs2CTR

Froglings

Invested

$135.8

Value

$149.38

PnL

+$13.58

Record

46%

219-260 (479)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Froglings

Invested

$98.47

Value

$83.92

PnL

+$6.74

Record

47%

226-251 (477)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Froglings

Invested

$15

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Froglings

Invested

$8.52

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$1.42

Record

53%

472-427 (899)

suntoriCTR<$100

Froglings

Invested

$9.52

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$2.72

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

forsenxdCTR<$100

Froglings

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6.54

PnL

+$0.59

Record

49%

371-393 (764)

ameisgoat11<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$4.65

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$0.88

Record

40%

589-893 (1482)

OddstormCTR<$100

Froglings

Invested

$2.43

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$1.08

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.