Dota 2: Team Spirit vs 1win - Game 2 Winner

24 of 40 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (60%) · Team Spirit at 83¢ · $170K held · ends Nov 13

Team Spirit83¢1win17¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 60%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$170.1K

Combined PnL

$6.2K

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 82.5¢

+14% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

24 of 40 top traders (60%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit83%

1win18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit24 traders

Total Value$103.2K

Total Shares129,292

Combined PnL+$6.0K

1win16 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares29,187

Combined PnL+$203.93

Team Spirit — 60%1win — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 31%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

65% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 31% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 1win) and the top 1000 (46 on Team Spirit) disagree here.

sharpTeam Spirit 100% · 8

Aligned

sniperTeam Spirit 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrTeam Spirit 52% · 23

Aligned

Hand-picked1win 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Team Spirit 65% · 46

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GX gxxyyARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 56.9¢	$25.0K	$26.0K	+$1.0K	69% 494-225 (719)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 56.9¢	$13.8K	$18.9K	+$5.1K
└ 1win leg	1winavg 34.6¢	$11.2K	$7.1K	$-4.1K
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Spiritavg 73.8¢	$20.9K	$21.7K	+$766.32	46% 453-523 (976)
YA yadens	Team Spiritavg 79.7¢	$12.5K	$12.0K	-$507.77	23% 23-79 (102)
Skritopoolniy	Team Spiritavg 53.5¢	$6.3K	$9.1K	+$2.7K	8% 33-373 (406)
RA RandomVibecoder	Team Spiritavg 63.3¢	$5.8K	$8.0K	+$2.2K	48% 517-566 (1083)
PI pipipi150ARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 74.6¢	$7.3K	$7.7K	+$429.03	69% 48-22 (70)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 74.6¢	$5.8K	$6.1K	+$260.82
└ 1win leg	1winavg 19.8¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$168.21
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	Team Spiritavg 57¢	$5.5K	$7.7K	+$2.6K	50% 38-38 (76)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 77.8¢	$7.0K	$7.1K	+$424.33	54% 288-242 (530)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 77.8¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$82.71
└ 1win leg	1winavg 18.7¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$507.04
UN UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100	1winavg 43.3¢	$41.2K	$6.9K	$-2.7K	31% 41-92 (133)
└ 1win leg	1winavg 43.3¢	$7.9K	$4.0K	-$888.05
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 77.9¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	$-1.9K
SA sange772	Team Spiritavg 82.3¢	$5.5K	$5.1K	-$389.84	21% 5-19 (24)
Stone1337	Team Spiritavg 83.2¢	$4.2K	$4.4K	+$240	51% 28-27 (55)
EX Excentrico	Team Spiritavg 82¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$55.27	1% 1-126 (127)
AU autob2ARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 61.3¢	$3.9K	$4.1K	+$214.08	52% 42-39 (81)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 61.3¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$740.53
└ 1win leg	1winavg 23.9¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$526.45
errormargin	Team Spiritavg 86.1¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$144.15	2% 3-180 (183)
Up0nly	Team Spiritavg 85.1¢	$5.6K	$3.8K	-$749.71	65% 15-8 (23)
QW qwerqr1251251	Team Spiritavg 76.6¢	$4.3K	$3.7K	-$501.47	21% 42-157 (199)
BA babyboy9	Team Spiritavg 79.5¢	$6.2K	$3.7K	$-1.1K	66% 27-14 (41)
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRARB<$100	1winavg 37.6¢	$10.5K	$3.5K	$-2.9K	— 3-5 (8)
└ 1win leg	1winavg 37.6¢	$5.0K	$2.2K	$-3.1K
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 75¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$129.86
WH whosay	Team Spiritavg 82.3¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$236.58	67% 31-15 (46)
cat3xcat3x	Team Spiritavg 69¢	$9.3K	$2.8K	+$152	1% 1-174 (175)
GE GEAEW	Team Spiritavg 77.7¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$43.94	— 8-4 (12)
iceblue-	Team Spiritavg 63.9¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$421.16	48% 22-24 (46)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100	1winavg 27.3¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$323.77	15% 34-197 (231)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 68¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$320
└ 1win leg	1winavg 27.3¢	$1.1K	$505.08	-$643.77
GO GooGooGaga1	Team Spiritavg 38.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$765.71	45% 19-23 (42)
NO nomoredream	Team Spiritavg 60.7¢	$3.9K	$1.6K	+$72.05	35% 44-81 (125)

gxxyyARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$25,012.35

Value

$26.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

69%

494-225 (719)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$13,770.7856.9¢+$5.1K

1win$11,238.1134.6¢$-4.1K

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Spirit

Invested

$20,900

Value

$21.7K

PnL

+$766.32

Record

46%

453-523 (976)

yadens

Team Spirit

Invested

$12,487.64

Value

$12.0K

PnL

-$507.77

Record

23%

23-79 (102)

Skritopoolniy

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,346.41

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

33-373 (406)

RandomVibecoder

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,816.56

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

48%

517-566 (1083)

pipipi150ARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,309.05

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$429.03

Record

69%

48-22 (70)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$5,802.1174.6¢+$260.82

1win$1,506.9319.8¢+$168.21

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,543.28

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

50%

38-38 (76)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,965.84

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$424.33

Record

54%

288-242 (530)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$5,016.9677.8¢-$82.71

1win$1,697.4818.7¢+$507.04

UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100

1win

Invested

$41,165.27

Value

$6.9K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

31%

41-92 (133)

Both legs:

1win$7,927.2443.3¢-$888.05

Team Spirit$2,815.477.9¢$-1.9K

sange772

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,500

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$389.84

Record

21%

5-19 (24)

Stone1337

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,160

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$240

Record

51%

28-27 (55)

Excentrico

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,333

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$55.27

Record

1-126 (127)

autob2ARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,912.99

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$214.08

Record

52%

42-39 (81)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$2,094.5261.3¢+$740.53

1win$1,818.4723.9¢-$526.45

errormargin

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$144.15

Record

3-180 (183)

Up0nly

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,635.14

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$749.71

Record

65%

15-8 (23)

qwerqr1251251

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,298.99

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$501.47

Record

21%

42-157 (199)

babyboy9

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,227.63

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

66%

27-14 (41)

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRARB<$100

1win

Invested

$10,527.68

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

—

3-5 (8)

Both legs:

1win$4,957.2237.6¢$-3.1K

Team Spirit$1,18075¢+$129.86

whosay

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,340.59

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$236.58

Record

67%

31-15 (46)

cat3xcat3x

Team Spirit

Invested

$9,292.28

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$152

Record

1-174 (175)

GEAEW

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,872.91

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$43.94

Record

—

8-4 (12)

iceblue-

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,129.35

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$421.16

Record

48%

22-24 (46)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100

1win

Invested

$2,236.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$323.77

Record

15%

34-197 (231)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$1,08868¢+$320

1win$1,148.8527.3¢-$643.77

GooGooGaga1

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,686.94

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$765.71

Record

45%

19-23 (42)

nomoredream

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,949.41

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$72.05

Record

35%

44-81 (125)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

24 of 40 top traders (60%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 31%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

65% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 31% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 1win) and the top 1000 (46 on Team Spirit) disagree here.

sharpTeam Spirit 100% · 8

Aligned

sniperTeam Spirit 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrTeam Spirit 52% · 23

Aligned

Hand-picked1win 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Team Spirit 65% · 46

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.