Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (57%) · Team Spirit at 71¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 13
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Neutral
Team Spirit
7
Team Spirit 57%
$13.0K
-$118.9
68.1¢ → 71¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Spirit at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO tony1919 | Team Spiritavg 68.2¢ | $10.0K | $10.0K | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
 forsenxdCTR | 1winavg 30.9¢ | $4.1K | $2.2K | -$23.3 | 48% 364-387 (751) |
JU JuiceFarmCTR | 1winavg 34.3¢ | $694.6 | $587.95 | -$106.65 | 61% 27-17 (44) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Team Spiritavg 63¢ | $138.11 | $149.59 | +$11.48 | 61% 962-608 (1570) |
BI biying88888<$100 | Team Spiritavg 63¢ | $21.42 | $23.2 | +$1.78 | 42% 169-231 (400) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | 1winavg 33.8¢ | $25 | $21.47 | -$3.53 | 40% 3308-4936 (8244) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Team Spiritavg 63¢ | $18.71 | $15.01 | +$1.3 | 38% 494-814 (1308) |
Invested
$10,000
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
forsenxdCTRInvested
$4,068.92
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$23.3
Record
48%
364-387 (751)
Invested
$694.6
Value
$587.95
PnL
-$106.65
Record
61%
27-17 (44)
Invested
$138.11
Value
$149.59
PnL
+$11.48
Record
61%
962-608 (1570)
Invested
$21.42
Value
$23.2
PnL
+$1.78
Record
42%
169-231 (400)
Invested
$25
Value
$21.47
PnL
-$3.53
Record
40%
3308-4936 (8244)
Invested
$18.71
Value
$15.01
PnL
+$1.3
Record
38%
494-814 (1308)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.