Dota 2: Team Spirit vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Group D

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (80%) · Team Spirit at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Team Spirit88¢1win12¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 80%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$4.38

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 87.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit88%

1win13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,870

Combined PnL-$5.82

1win2 traders

Total Value$36.09

Total Shares289

Combined PnL+$1.44

Team Spirit — 80%1win — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Spirit 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Team Spirit 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OJ ojgtubvdt	Team Spiritavg 88.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$14.26	— 11-7 (18)
forsenxd	Team Spiritavg 86¢	$357.69	$363.92	+$6.24	48% 364-387 (751)
YI yishiwucheng	Team Spiritavg 87¢	$213.69	$214.87	+$1.17	56% 55-43 (98)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	1winavg 12¢	$30	$31.25	+$1.25	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Team Spiritavg 87.2¢	$21.79	$21.87	+$0.08	38% 492-810 (1302)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Team Spiritavg 86¢	$14.62	$14.96	+$0.34	50% 3542-3501 (7043)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Team Spiritavg 82.6¢	$6.82	$7.27	+$0.45	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	1winavg 12¢	$4.65	$4.84	+$0.19	46% 161-187 (348)
SU suntori<$100	Team Spiritavg 88¢	$4.76	$4.76	+$0	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Team Spiritavg 84¢	$3.3	$3.46	+$0.16	49% 1241-1273 (2514)

ojgtubvdt

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,019.59

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$14.26

Record

—

11-7 (18)

forsenxd

Team Spirit

Invested

$357.69

Value

$363.92

PnL

+$6.24

Record

48%

364-387 (751)

yishiwucheng

Team Spirit

Invested

$213.69

Value

$214.87

PnL

+$1.17

Record

56%

55-43 (98)

38791873984189CTR<$100

1win

Invested

$30

Value

$31.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

ameisgoat11<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$21.79

Value

$21.87

PnL

+$0.08

Record

38%

492-810 (1302)

6512395314597884<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$14.62

Value

$14.96

PnL

+$0.34

Record

50%

3542-3501 (7043)

Flaznorp<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$6.82

Value

$7.27

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

GaditimaCTR<$100

1win

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$0.19

Record

46%

161-187 (348)

suntori<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

ferdinand2<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.46

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Spirit 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Team Spirit 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.