Dota 2: Team Synapse vs CyberHero - Game 1 Winner

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (31%) · CyberHero at 78¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 15

Team Synapse22¢CyberHero78¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.0K

Combined PnL

$-6.6K

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 78¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Synapse22%

CyberHero78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero4 traders

Total Value$19.8K

Total Shares37,970

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Team Synapse9 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares35,024

Combined PnL$-1.7K

CyberHero — 31%Team Synapse — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	CyberHeroavg 64.4¢	$23.6K	$18.9K	$-4.7K	47% 477-547 (1024)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Team Synapseavg 34.8¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$151.86	48% 544-592 (1136)
Medo3DCTR	Team Synapseavg 30.9¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$193.82	12% 34-259 (293)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Team Synapseavg 41.9¢	$3.4K	$1.8K	$-1.6K	10% 44-392 (436)
R2 r2d2v2	CyberHeroavg 70¢	$600	$600	-$0	16% 35-189 (224)
alpheclabs2CTR	Team Synapseavg 44¢	$388.54	$366.46	-$22.08	45% 363-445 (808)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 42.4¢	$360.69	$350.25	-$10.44	56% 4160-3248 (7408)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 42.4¢	$196.61	$204.15	+$7.54
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 62.9¢	$164.08	$146.1	-$17.98
NO NotJump	CyberHeroavg 50¢	$525	$342.5	-$17.5	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Team Synapseavg 40.2¢	$281.28	$227.5	-$53.78	37% 67-113 (180)
BU BunnycatCTR	Team Synapseavg 45.9¢	$200	$189.57	-$10.43	60% 36-24 (60)
poshposhCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 34.3¢	$74.66	$93.27	+$18.61	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 46.2¢	$23.12	$20.75	-$2.37	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 45¢	$4.28	$4.95	+$0.67	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
NO nomoredream	CyberHeroavg 56¢	$601.07	$1.43	-$198.05	43% 71-93 (164)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

CyberHero

Invested

$23,595.78

Value

$18.9K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

47%

477-547 (1024)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$4,219.44

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$151.86

Record

48%

544-592 (1136)

Medo3DCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$3,850.61

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$193.82

Record

12%

34-259 (293)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$3,431.94

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

10%

44-392 (436)

r2d2v2

CyberHero

Invested

$600

Value

$600

PnL

-$0

Record

16%

35-189 (224)

alpheclabs2CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$388.54

Value

$366.46

PnL

-$22.08

Record

45%

363-445 (808)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$360.69

Value

$350.25

PnL

-$10.44

Record

56%

4160-3248 (7408)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$196.6142.4¢+$7.54

CyberHero$164.0862.9¢-$17.98

NotJump

CyberHero

Invested

$525

Value

$342.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$281.28

Value

$227.5

PnL

-$53.78

Record

37%

67-113 (180)

BunnycatCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$200

Value

$189.57

PnL

-$10.43

Record

60%

36-24 (60)

poshposhCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$74.66

Value

$93.27

PnL

+$18.61

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$23.12

Value

$20.75

PnL

-$2.37

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

suntoriCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$4.28

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.67

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

nomoredream

CyberHero

Invested

$601.07

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$198.05

Record

43%

71-93 (164)

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.