Dota 2: Power Rangers vs angry birds - Game 1 Winner

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold angry birds (63%) · angry birds at 95¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 11

Power Rangers6¢angry birds94¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

angry birds

Consensus Traders

angry birds 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.5K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 94.5¢

+56% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Neutralangry birds at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

angry birds

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Power Rangers6%

angry birds95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

angry birds10 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares17,408

Combined PnL+$5.7K

Power Rangers6 traders

Total Value$856.17

Total Shares14,302

Combined PnL$-4.2K

angry birds — 63%Power Rangers — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on angry birds. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpangry birds 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrangry birds 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedangry birds 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000angry birds 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	angry birdsavg 55.3¢	$5.1K	$8.7K	+$3.6K	46% 435-501 (936)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	angry birdsavg 54.9¢	$1.9K	$3.3K	+$1.4K	10% 22-189 (211)
Tolkonevminus2	angry birdsavg 79.7¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	+$356.23	38% 36-59 (95)
Hawk.live	angry birdsavg 85.7¢	$922.93	$1.0K	+$95.08	56% 663-513 (1176)
BI BillBenter2026	angry birdsavg 56.1¢	$504.06	$704.93	+$200.87	22% 141-490 (631)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266	angry birdsavg 72¢	$477.34	$520.43	+$43.09	9% 6-64 (70)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	angry birdsavg 66.3¢	$515.83	$481.17	-$34.66	53% 1811-1621 (3432)
└ angry birds leg	angry birdsavg 66.3¢	$283.16	$358.79	+$75.64
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 30.4¢	$232.68	$122.38	-$110.3
Medo3DCTR	Power Rangersavg 39.5¢	$2.7K	$374.15	$-2.3K	7% 18-227 (245)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Power Rangersavg 34.3¢	$2.1K	$330.6	$-1.7K	48% 496-543 (1039)
alpheclabs2CTR	Power Rangersavg 14.3¢	$150.82	$89.84	-$60.98	45% 116-143 (259)
GX gxxyy<$100	angry birdsavg 76¢	$51.96	$57.77	+$5.81	69% 485-220 (705)
A3 a37932699CTR	Power Rangersavg 45¢	$157.95	$56.16	-$101.79	2% 4-181 (185)
VeryLucky888<$100	angry birdsavg 49¢	$12.25	$21	+$8.75	51% 455-429 (884)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	angry birdsavg 50¢	$5	$8.4	+$3.4	41% 3127-4493 (7620)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	angry birdsavg 50¢	$2.5	$4.2	+$1.7	32% 291-617 (908)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Power Rangersavg 15.3¢	$5.06	$2.81	-$2.25	45% 233-283 (516)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Power Rangersavg 21¢	$10	$2.62	-$7.38	30% 202-472 (674)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

angry birds

Invested

$5,100

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

46%

435-501 (936)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

angry birds

Invested

$1,912.96

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

10%

22-189 (211)

Tolkonevminus2

angry birds

Invested

$2,310.62

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$356.23

Record

38%

36-59 (95)

Hawk.live

angry birds

Invested

$922.93

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$95.08

Record

56%

663-513 (1176)

BillBenter2026

angry birds

Invested

$504.06

Value

$704.93

PnL

+$200.87

Record

22%

141-490 (631)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266

angry birds

Invested

$477.34

Value

$520.43

PnL

+$43.09

Record

6-64 (70)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

angry birds

Invested

$515.83

Value

$481.17

PnL

-$34.66

Record

53%

1811-1621 (3432)

Both legs:

angry birds$283.1666.3¢+$75.64

Power Rangers$232.6830.4¢-$110.3

Medo3DCTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$2,688.87

Value

$374.15

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

18-227 (245)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$2,061.16

Value

$330.6

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

48%

496-543 (1039)

alpheclabs2CTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$150.82

Value

$89.84

PnL

-$60.98

Record

45%

116-143 (259)

gxxyy<$100

angry birds

Invested

$51.96

Value

$57.77

PnL

+$5.81

Record

69%

485-220 (705)

a37932699CTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$157.95

Value

$56.16

PnL

-$101.79

Record

4-181 (185)

VeryLucky888<$100

angry birds

Invested

$12.25

Value

$21

PnL

+$8.75

Record

51%

455-429 (884)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

angry birds

Invested

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$3.4

Record

41%

3127-4493 (7620)

ameisgoat11<$100

angry birds

Invested

$2.5

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$1.7

Record

32%

291-617 (908)

lryyyCTR<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$5.06

Value

$2.81

PnL

-$2.25

Record

45%

233-283 (516)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$10

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$7.38

Record

30%

202-472 (674)

Research grade

Neutralangry birds at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

angry birds

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on angry birds. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpangry birds 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrangry birds 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedangry birds 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000angry birds 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that angry birds wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.